Derby vs Stoke City Prediction, Tips & Odds
Derby vs Stoke City
Match Preview
The model favours Stoke City to win this match against Derby, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Currently positioned 7th in the Championship, Stoke has demonstrated solid form this season, accumulating 13 points from 8 matches with 4 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses. Their goal-scoring ability is notable, with 13 goals scored, although they have conceded 12, indicating a need for improvement in defence. In contrast, Derby finds itself struggling at 22nd place, having secured only 5 points from 8 games. Their record of 1 win, 2 draws, and 5 losses, along with a goal difference of -7, reflects significant challenges in both scoring and defending. With only 7 goals scored and 14 conceded, Derby has been unable to find consistency, which could hinder their performance against a higher-ranked opponent. According to the model, Stoke City has a win probability of approximately 65%, with the projected score suggesting a clear advantage. One key market percentage to consider is the likelihood of Stoke winning by two or more goals. However, a potential caveat is Derby's home advantage, which could spur an unexpected performance. For a deeper insight into how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which utilizes an in-house model that evaluates fixtures based on expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Derby manage games at home, conceding just 1.40 goals per match. Stoke City score 1.18 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.3% probability.
Stoke City have been the stronger side, winning 29% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.3% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Stoke City are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Derby vs Stoke City| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.80 | 3.36 | 2.38 | 1.93 | 1.81 | 1.72 | 1.98 | |
| 2.80 | 3.40 | 2.40 | 1.90 | 1.80 | 1.75 | 2.05 | |
| 2.97 | 3.53 | 2.39 | 1.95 | 1.92 | — | — | |
| 2.71 | 3.05 | 2.20 | 1.94 | 1.88 | — | — | |
| 2.80 | 3.30 | 2.30 | — | — | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 2.90 | 3.40 | 2.35 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 2.81 | 3.36 | 2.40 | 1.93 | 1.81 | 1.72 | 2.01 | |
Betano | 2.92 | 3.45 | 2.42 | 1.98 | 1.87 | 1.75 | 2.02 |
BetVictor | 2.90 | 3.40 | 2.30 | 1.87 | 1.80 | 1.70 | 2.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Derby leads 5-3)In the last 10 matches between Derby and Stoke City, Derby has won 5 times, Stoke City has won 3 times, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several narrow victories, including three matches decided by a single goal. The most significant win was Derby's 4-0 triumph, while Stoke's largest victory was a 3-1 win. The matches have also featured low-scoring draws, as seen in the 0-0 results. Overall, neither side has dominated the other, reflecting a balanced historical contest.
Championship Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Swansea | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 23 | WWWWL |
| 2 |  Middlesbrough | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 20 | 14 | 6 | 21 | WWDDW |
| 3 |  West Ham | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 29 | 12 | 17 | 19 | WDDWW |
| 4 |  Birmingham | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 17 | WWDWL |
| 5 |  QPR | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 17 | WDDDD |
| 6 |  Wolves | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 15 | 3 | 17 | WLLWW |
| 9 | Stoke City | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 16 | 1 | 16 | LWWWD |
| 22 |  Watford | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 8 | LLLLW |
| 23 | Derby | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 6 | LDDLL |
| 24 |  Preston | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 4 | LLDLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonDerby have won 6 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Wrexham 1-1 and lost to Birmingham 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 5D 17L from the last 35 games (37% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Stoke City have won 2 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include beat Stoke City 1-2 and beat Watford 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 9D 15L from the last 34 games (29% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
13 playersDerby9
Stoke City4
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Oliver Langford has averaged 7.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 4.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Derby have averaged 5.5 corners per match at home; Stoke City 4.1 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Stoke City have generated 1.04 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 29% of them. They put 4.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Stoke City player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
