Derby vs Swansea Prediction, Tips & Odds
Derby vs Swansea
Match Preview
The model favours Swansea to win against Derby, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Swansea currently sits in 7th place in the Championship standings, having kicked off their season with a solid victory. They scored 2 goals while conceding 1 in their opening match, suggesting a promising start as they look to maintain momentum. In contrast, Derby finds itself in 17th position after their first match of the season, suffering a loss that left them without points. Their goal difference of -1 indicates defensive vulnerabilities, having conceded 2 goals while only managing to find the net once. With a recent form of 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last five matches, they will need to improve significantly to challenge Swansea. The model gives Swansea a strong win probability and highlights their current form, with three wins in their last five matches. However, a potential caveat for Swansea could be complacency, especially after a successful start, which could allow Derby to capitalize if they find their rhythm. The full method used for this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team through an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.9% probability.
Derby have been the stronger side, winning 43% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.9% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Derby clean sheets, in line with their 25% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Derby are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Derby vs Swansea| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.20 | 3.44 | 3.06 | 1.90 | 1.87 | 1.70 | 2.01 | |
| 2.15 | 3.40 | 3.20 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.26 | 3.51 | 3.10 | 1.93 | 1.90 | — | — | |
| 2.20 | 3.30 | 3.10 | — | — | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 2.10 | 3.20 | 3.30 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.91 | |
| 2.22 | 3.44 | 3.06 | 1.90 | 1.87 | 1.70 | 2.04 | |
Betano | 2.22 | 3.45 | 3.25 | 1.95 | 1.90 | 1.72 | 2.05 |
BetVictor | 2.15 | 3.30 | 3.10 | 1.88 | 1.79 | 1.70 | 2.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (evenly matched 4-4)The head-to-head record between Derby and Swansea stands at 4 wins for Derby, 2 draws, and 4 wins for Swansea over the last 10 matches. This indicates a balanced rivalry, with both teams showing equal strength in securing victories. The scorelines reflect a mix of narrow and modest wins, with several matches ending in close contests, such as the 1-0 and 2-1 results. Notably, neither team has dominated, as evidenced by the recent frequency of draws and the fact that both sides have won against each other in the past few seasons.
Championship Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Millwall | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 6 | WW |
| 2 |  West Brom | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 6 | WW |
| 3 |  Charlton | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | WW |
| 4 |  Wolves | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | WD |
| 5 |  QPR | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | DW |
| 6 |  Blackburn | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | WD |
| 9 | Swansea | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | DW |
| 16 | Derby | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 1 | DL |
| 22 |  Lincoln | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 0 | LL |
| 23 |  Norwich | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 | LL |
| 24 |  Southampton | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | -1 | WL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonDerby have won 6 of their last 12 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Cardiff 2-2 and lost to Lincoln 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 3D 13L from the last 28 games (43% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Swansea have won 5 of their last 12 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include beat Stoke City 1-2 and lost to Merthyr Town 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 6D 9L from the last 27 games (44% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersDerby
No reported absences
Swansea
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Derby average 1.5 goals per match at home; Swansea 1.3 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Derby have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 43% of their matches and averaging 1.5 goals per game. Derby player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
