Wolves vs Stoke City Prediction, Tips & Odds
Wolves vs Stoke City
Match Preview
The model favours Wolves to win with a projected scoreline of 2-1 against Stoke City. Wolves currently sit in 9th place in the Championship after one match, having drawn their opening fixture with a total of two goals scored and two conceded. Their recent form shows strength, with three wins in their last five matches, suggesting a solid offensive capability that they will look to build on. On the other hand, Stoke City finds themselves in 20th position, having lost their first match of the season. They have struggled defensively, allowing two goals while only managing to score once. Their recent form features two wins and two draws in their last five matches, indicating some potential but also highlighting inconsistency that could be problematic against a more stable Wolves side. According to the model, Wolves have a win probability of 60%, while Stoke City holds a 20% chance of victory. The key market percentage suggests that Wolves are the clear favourites in this matchup. However, the caveat is that Wolves need to maintain their defensive discipline, as any lapses could allow Stoke to exploit weaknesses. The full methodology behind this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model analyses expected goals and actual results throughout the season. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs this approach to provide an informed perspective on the match.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.2 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.7% probability.
Wolves have been the stronger side, winning 32% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-0 Wolves win as the most likely scoreline at 14.7% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Wolves clean sheets, in line with their 28% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. Wolves are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Wolves vs Stoke City| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.40 | 4.50 | 7.40 | 1.62 | 2.25 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 1.38 | 4.70 | 7.40 | 1.62 | 2.26 | 1.81 | 1.87 | |
| 1.33 | 5.00 | 7.50 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.40 | 4.60 | 7.00 | — | — | 1.80 | 1.91 | |
| 1.36 | 4.50 | 7.00 | 1.62 | 2.30 | 1.83 | 1.83 | |
| 1.39 | 4.70 | 7.38 | 1.62 | 2.26 | 1.81 | 1.90 | |
Betano | 1.44 | 4.65 | 7.30 | 1.65 | 2.32 | 1.80 | 1.95 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 9 Meetings (Stoke City leads 4-2)In the last nine matches between Wolves and Stoke City, Stoke City leads with four wins, while Wolves has secured two victories, and there have been three draws. The scorelines indicate a mix of competitive fixtures, with several matches ending in draws and a few narrow margins. Notably, Stoke City's wins include a heavy 3-0 victory, showcasing their ability to dominate at times. Wolves last defeated Stoke in 2017, which may suggest a challenging trend for them in this rivalry. Overall, the head-to-head record reflects a relatively balanced but slightly favorable position for Stoke City.
Championship Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Millwall | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 6 | WW |
| 2 |  West Brom | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 6 | WW |
| 3 |  Charlton | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | WW |
| 4 | Wolves | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | WD |
| 5 |  QPR | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | DW |
| 6 |  Blackburn | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | WD |
| 21 | Stoke City | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 0 | LL |
| 22 |  Lincoln | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 0 | LL |
| 23 |  Norwich | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 | LL |
| 24 |  Southampton | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | -1 | WL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonWolves have won 4 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Wolves 2-2 and beat Wolves 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 7D 10L from the last 25 games (32% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Stoke City have won 0 of their last 11 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Stoke City 3-1 and drew with Crewe 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 5W 7D 14L from the last 26 games (19% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersWolves
No reported absences
Stoke City
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Wolves average 1.2 goals per match at home; Stoke City 1.0 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Wolves have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 32% of their matches and averaging 1.2 goals per game. Wolves player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
