Dundee vs Motherwell Prediction, Tips & Odds
Dundee vs Motherwell
Match Preview
The model favours Motherwell to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 1-0. Currently positioned 5th in the Premiership, Motherwell has accumulated 8 points from 5 matches, recording 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss. Their goal difference of +3, with 8 goals scored and only 5 conceded, indicates a solid attacking performance coupled with a reasonably strong defense. In contrast, Dundee sits in 6th place with 7 points from 6 matches, having won just 2, drawn 1, and lost 3. Their goal difference of +1 suggests they have struggled to convert chances into goals, scoring 7 while conceding 6. Recent form shows Dundee with only 1 win in their last 5 matches, which reflects a lack of momentum heading into this fixture. The model gives Motherwell a 42.1% win probability, while Dundee's chances stand at 30.8%. Additionally, there is a 57.1% probability for both teams to score, and a 52.6% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match. One potential caveat for Motherwell is their inconsistency, as they have also experienced a dip in form recently. The full methodology for this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, produced by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals alongside actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.5% probability.
Motherwell have been the stronger side, winning 40% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.5% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Motherwell are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Dundee vs Motherwell| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.98 | 3.32 | 2.28 | 1.68 | 2.11 | 1.53 | 2.31 | |
| 3.25 | 3.40 | 2.20 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.60 | 2.30 | |
| 3.08 | 3.48 | 2.37 | 1.72 | 2.22 | — | — | |
| 2.70 | 3.16 | 2.16 | 1.69 | 2.14 | — | — | |
| 3.00 | 3.30 | 2.20 | — | — | 1.55 | 2.30 | |
| 3.00 | 3.50 | 2.25 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 3.11 | 3.34 | 2.23 | 1.68 | 2.11 | 1.54 | 2.32 | |
Betano | 3.10 | 3.40 | 2.32 | 1.75 | 2.15 | 1.55 | 2.35 |
BetVictor | 3.00 | 3.60 | 2.20 | 1.66 | 2.06 | 1.53 | 2.30 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Motherwell leads 4-3)In the last 10 matches between Dundee and Motherwell, the record stands at Dundee winning 3 times, Motherwell winning 4 times, and 3 matches ending in draws. The scorelines indicate a fairly competitive rivalry, with several closely contested games, as seen in the frequent draws and narrow victories. Notably, there have been no heavy wins, with the largest margin being Dundee's 4-1 victory. The most recent match saw a 2-1 win for Dundee, while Motherwell last secured a win against Dundee in May 2025, suggesting a balanced contest overall.
Premiership Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Celtic | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 18 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Rangers | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 13 | WWWWL |
| 3 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 12 | WWWWL |
| 4 |  ST Mirren | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 10 | LLWDW |
| 5 | Motherwell | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 8 | LWDDW |
| 6 | Dundee | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 7 | LDLWW |
| 10 |  Aberdeen | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 4 | DLLLW |
| 11 |  Falkirk | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2 | DLLDL |
| 12 |  Kilmarnock | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 1 | DLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonDundee have won 6 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include drew with ST Johnstone 1-1 and lost to Hibernian 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 8D 14L from the last 33 games (33% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Motherwell have won 6 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Motherwell 1-0 and drew with ST Mirren 3-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 6D 12L from the last 30 games (40% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedDundee4-2-3-1Confirmed
Motherwell4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersDundee
No reported absences
Motherwell
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Dundee have averaged 4.3 corners per match at home; Motherwell 3.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Motherwell have generated 1.18 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 40% of them. They put 4.1 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Motherwell player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.