Erzurumspor FK vs Samsunspor Prediction, Tips & Odds
Erzurumspor FK vs Samsunspor
Match Preview
The model favours Erzurumspor FK to win this matchup against Samsunspor, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Erzurumspor currently sits in 15th place with 4 points from 4 matches, having recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 2 losses. Their goal difference of -6 indicates defensive struggles, but they have shown some resilience, managing to secure two wins in their last five matches, which could provide them with a confidence boost. Samsunspor, on the other hand, is positioned slightly higher in 13th place with the same points total, also at 4 points from their 4 games. Their form has been less encouraging, with only 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last five matches. While they have scored 5 goals, their defensive record has been shaky, conceding 6 goals and posting a goal difference of -1. This inconsistency could hinder their chances in this crucial match. The model outputs a win probability of 55% for Erzurumspor FK, indicating a strong likelihood of success in this fixture. While the home advantage is in their favour, the key challenge for Erzurumspor will be addressing their defensive frailties. For a deeper understanding of this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team outlines their in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Erzurumspor FK manage games at home, conceding just 0.77 goals per match. Samsunspor score 1.37 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.9% probability.
Erzurumspor FK have been the stronger side, winning 54% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.9% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Erzurumspor FK are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Erzurumspor FK vs Samsunspor| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.60 | 3.18 | 2.66 | 2.01 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.94 | |
| 2.63 | 3.30 | 2.55 | 2.05 | 1.75 | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| 2.70 | 3.25 | 2.78 | 2.09 | 1.79 | — | — | |
| 2.43 | 2.99 | 2.48 | 2.00 | 1.82 | — | — | |
| 2.50 | 3.10 | 2.62 | — | — | 1.75 | 1.95 | |
| 2.62 | 3.20 | 2.62 | 2.05 | 1.75 | 1.80 | 1.91 | |
| 2.71 | 3.32 | 2.77 | 2.08 | 1.81 | 1.75 | 1.97 | |
Betano | 2.62 | 3.15 | 2.70 | 2.07 | 1.80 | 1.75 | 2.02 |
BetVictor | 2.55 | 3.20 | 2.55 | 1.95 | 1.73 | 1.75 | 1.95 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 6 Meetings (Samsunspor leads 3-0)In the last six encounters between Erzurumspor FK and Samsunspor, Samsunspor has won three times, Erzurumspor FK has not secured a win, and there have been three draws. The matches have generally been competitive, with three of the fixtures ending in draws, indicating a tendency for closely contested games. However, Samsunspor has managed to claim three victories, with the highest margin being just one goal, except for the recent 2-1 win. Erzurumspor FK last won against Samsunspor over five years ago, highlighting a notable lack of success in recent encounters.
Süper Lig Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Galatasaray | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 10 | WWWD |
| 2 |  Beşiktaş | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 9 | WWLW |
| 3 |  Kocaelispor | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 9 | WWWL |
| 4 |  Trabzonspor | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 7 | WLWD |
| 5 |  Amed | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 7 | DWLW |
| 6 |  Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 7 | LDWW |
| 13 | Samsunspor | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 4 | LLWD |
| 15 | Erzurumspor FK | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 4 | WDLL |
| 16 |  Eyüpspor | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 3 | LWLL |
| 17 |  Göztepe | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 1 | LLD |
| 18 |  Konyaspor | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 0 | LLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonErzurumspor FK have won 5 of their last 8 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include beat Konyaspor 1-0 and lost to Galatasaray 0-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 5D 1L from the last 13 games (54% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Samsunspor have won 9 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Samsunspor 1-0 and beat Rizespor 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 5D 10L from the last 30 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersErzurumspor FK
No reported absences
Samsunspor
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
A. B. Taskinsoy has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by A. B. Taskinsoy to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Erzurumspor FK have averaged 3.1 corners per match at home; Samsunspor 3.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Erzurumspor FK have generated 1.56 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 54% of them. They put 5.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Erzurumspor FK player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.