Fakel vs Baltika Prediction, Tips & Odds
Fakel vs Baltika
Match Preview
The model favours Baltika to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 1-0. Currently positioned 7th in the league, Baltika has accumulated 7 points from their first five matches, with a record of 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. Their scoring has been decent, netting 7 goals while conceding 6, reflecting a positive goal difference of 1. This relatively strong start to the season suggests they are in better form compared to their opponents. In contrast, Fakel sits at the bottom of the table in 16th place, having secured just 2 points from 6 matches. Their record shows no wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal tally of only 3 and 7 conceded. Fakel's recent form is concerning, as they have not won in their last five matches, which may further impact their confidence as they face a more competitive side. According to the model, Baltika has a 44.9% win probability, while Fakel's chance of winning stands at 26.0%. The projected score of 1-0 reflects a tightly contested match, with a 40.3% chance of over 2.5 goals and 45.3% for both teams to score. One caveat is that if Fakel can leverage their home advantage effectively, they might surprise Baltika despite their poor season start. The full methodology of this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Fakel have kept a clean sheet in 26% of matches. Baltika average 1.5 goals per game.
Fakel manage games at home, conceding just 1.22 goals per match. Baltika score 1.51 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 18.6% probability.
Baltika have been the stronger side, winning 37% of their matches.
Our model projects a 0-1 Baltika win as the most likely scoreline at 18.6% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Baltika are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Fakel vs Baltika| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.54 | 2.96 | 2.38 | 2.77 | 1.45 | 2.19 | 1.60 | |
| 3.59 | 2.92 | 2.40 | 2.82 | 1.45 | — | — | |
| 3.02 | 2.80 | 2.17 | — | — | — | — | |
| 3.63 | 3.04 | 2.44 | 2.77 | 1.45 | 2.19 | 1.62 | |
Superbet | 3.30 | 3.00 | 2.30 | 2.55 | 1.47 | 2.12 | 1.64 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Baltika leads 5-2)In the last 10 matches between Fakel and Baltika, Baltika has won 5 times, Fakel has won 2 times, and there have been 3 draws. The scorelines suggest a competitive rivalry, with several closely contested matches, including three draws and a mixture of narrow and moderate wins. Notably, the most recent match in December 2023 ended in a goalless draw, indicating that both teams can be defensively solid. However, Baltika's edge in victories, combined with a 3-0 win in 2019, highlights their historical advantage in this matchup.
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Krasnodar | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 21 | DDDWW |
| 2 |  Dynamo | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 19 | WWWWW |
| 3 |  CSKA Moscow | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 19 | WDWDW |
| 4 |  Spartak Moscow | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 19 | WWLDW |
| 5 |  Zenit | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 9 | 10 | 18 | WWLWL |
| 6 |  Rubin | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 12 | DDDWD |
| 8 | Baltika | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 12 | 2 | 11 | LDLWD |
| 14 |  Lokomotiv | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 7 | DLWLL |
| 15 |  Rodina Moskva | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 22 | -12 | 5 | DLLLL |
| 16 | Fakel | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3 | LDLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonFakel have won 3 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include beat FC Vitebsk 1-0 and drew with Baltika 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 5W 8D 10L from the last 23 games (22% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Baltika have won 7 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Fakel 2-2 and beat Rodina Moskva 0-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 12D 10L from the last 35 games (37% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedFakel3-4-3Confirmed
Baltika5-4-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
2 playersFakel1
Baltika1
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Fakel have averaged 4.9 corners per match at home; Baltika 4.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Baltika have generated 1.43 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 37% of them. They put 4.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Baltika player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
