Falkirk vs Heart Of Midlothian Prediction, Tips & Odds
Falkirk vs Heart Of Midlothian
Match Preview
The model favours Heart Of Midlothian to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Despite both teams facing early-season struggles, Heart Of Midlothian sits slightly higher in the standings, currently in 10th place, while Falkirk is in 12th. Both teams have lost their opening match of the season, but Heart Of Midlothian managed to score once, indicating some offensive potential, even though they conceded twice. Falkirk's form has been mixed in their last five matches, with two wins, one draw, and two losses. However, their recent performance does not seem to translate into this season, as they have yet to score in their first match. Their lack of goals could be a significant concern going forward, especially against a team that has shown some resilience like Heart Of Midlothian. On the other hand, Heart Of Midlothian's recent form is concerning, with only one win in their last five outings. They have experienced a tough start to the season, but their ability to find the net, albeit limited, may give them an edge over Falkirk, who are struggling to score. The model estimates a 40.2% chance of a Heart Of Midlothian victory, a 27.5% chance of a draw, and a 32.3% chance for Falkirk to win. One caveat is that if Falkirk can capitalize on their home advantage and improve their attacking play, the match could swing in their favour. The full method is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as The Daily Punt Analysis Team utilizes an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.2 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.5% probability.
Heart Of Midlothian have been the stronger side, winning 53% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.5% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Heart Of Midlothian are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Falkirk vs Heart Of Midlothian| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.45 | 3.50 | 2.02 | 1.83 | 1.95 | 1.70 | 2.10 | |
| 3.60 | 3.54 | 1.94 | 1.71 | 2.06 | 1.60 | 2.16 | |
| 3.75 | 3.60 | 1.95 | 1.67 | 2.15 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 3.74 | 3.64 | 2.03 | 1.76 | 2.14 | — | — | |
| 3.50 | 3.35 | 1.90 | 1.74 | 2.11 | — | — | |
| 3.50 | 3.40 | 1.91 | — | — | 1.60 | 2.25 | |
| 3.50 | 3.60 | 2.00 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 3.60 | 3.54 | 1.96 | 1.71 | 2.06 | 1.61 | 2.18 | |
| 3.05 | 3.35 | 2.16 | 1.84 | 1.90 | 1.65 | 2.08 | |
| 3.50 | 3.25 | 2.05 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
Betano | 3.55 | 3.60 | 2.05 | 1.75 | 2.12 | 1.62 | 2.22 |
BetVictor | 3.50 | 3.70 | 1.95 | 1.68 | 2.02 | 1.60 | 2.20 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Heart Of Midlothian leads 7-2)In the last 10 matches between Falkirk and Heart Of Midlothian, Falkirk has won 2 times, drawn 1, and Heart Of Midlothian has won 7. This record indicates a dominant performance by Heart Of Midlothian, with a tendency for one-sided results, as they have secured several victories by margins of at least two goals, including a 4-0 win in a friendly and a 3-0 win in the league. The lone draw in this period was a low-scoring 1-1 match, suggesting that when Falkirk does manage to compete, the matches tend to be tightly contested, although overall, Falkirk's last win against Heart Of Midlothian was in January 2015.
Premiership Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Celtic | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 18 | LWWWW |
| 2 |  Rangers | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 16 | WWWWW |
| 3 | Heart Of Midlothian | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 13 | DLWWW |
| 4 |  Dundee | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 10 | WLDLW |
| 5 |  ST Mirren | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 10 | LLLWD |
| 6 |  ST Johnstone | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 8 | DLWDL |
| 10 |  Hibernian | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 7 | DLLLW |
| 11 | Falkirk | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 6 | DWDLL |
| 12 |  Kilmarnock | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 5 | DWDLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonFalkirk have won 8 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 0 and losing 8. Their recent home fixtures include beat Falkirk 2-1 and lost to Falkirk 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 7D 13L from the last 33 games (39% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Heart Of Midlothian have won 7 of their last 20 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Heart Of Midlothian 1-1 and lost to Falkirk 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 20W 8D 10L from the last 38 games (53% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedFalkirk4-2-3-1Confirmed
Heart Of Midlothian4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersFalkirk
No reported absences
Heart Of Midlothian
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Falkirk have averaged 5.1 corners per match at home; Heart Of Midlothian 6.7 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.9 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Heart Of Midlothian have generated 1.38 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 53% of them. They put 4.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Heart Of Midlothian player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.