FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction, Tips & Odds
FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen
Match Preview
The model favours FC Augsburg to win against Bayer Leverkusen, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Augsburg enters the match in a solid position after a promising end to last season, finishing in 11th place. Their form over the last five matches shows three wins, which indicates a competitive edge going into this fixture, despite the lack of recent competitive matches this season. On the other hand, Bayer Leverkusen is coming off a disappointing start to the season, having lost their only match played so far. Positioned 15th in the standings, their early performance has raised concerns, particularly with a negative goal difference of -1. While they have shown resilience in their recent form with three wins in the last five matches, they will need to improve quickly to avoid falling further behind. The model suggests a win probability of 55% for Augsburg, with a projected score of 2-1. However, a caveat for Augsburg is the uncertainty of how they will perform in their first match of the season, as they may take time to find their rhythm. The full method behind this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as our in-house model assesses expected goals alongside actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.2 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.2% probability.
Bayer Leverkusen have been the stronger side, winning 50% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 12.2% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Bayer Leverkusen are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.92 | 4.10 | 1.88 | 1.38 | 2.76 | 1.39 | 2.76 | |
| 3.90 | 4.10 | 1.85 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.40 | 2.80 | |
| 3.84 | 4.07 | 1.89 | 1.42 | 2.92 | — | — | |
| 3.33 | 3.74 | 1.84 | — | — | — | — | |
| 3.70 | 3.80 | 1.80 | — | — | 1.40 | 2.80 | |
| 3.75 | 4.10 | 1.90 | 1.40 | 3.00 | 1.40 | 2.75 | |
| 3.98 | 4.16 | 1.91 | 1.38 | 2.76 | 1.39 | 2.81 | |
Betano | 3.75 | 4.25 | 1.91 | 1.44 | 2.92 | 1.40 | 2.80 |
BetVictor | 3.60 | 4.10 | 1.85 | 1.39 | 2.70 | 1.36 | 2.88 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Bayer Leverkusen leads 6-4)In the last 10 matches between FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen, Bayer Leverkusen has won 6 times while FC Augsburg has won 4 times, with no draws. The scorelines indicate a mix of outcomes, with some matches being closely contested, such as Augsburg's 2-1 victory in 2026 and Leverkusen's 2-1 win in 2024. However, there have also been lopsided results, including Leverkusen's 5-1 and 4-1 wins in 2022 and 2021, respectively. Overall, while the record shows a competitive rivalry, Leverkusen has had the upper hand in recent encounters.
Bundesliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 12 | WWWW |
| 2 |  Bayern München | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 12 | 10 | WWDW |
| 3 |  SC Freiburg | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 10 | DWWW |
| 4 | FC Augsburg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 7 | LDWW |
| 5 | Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 7 | WDWL |
| 6 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 7 | WLWD |
| 16 |  Hamburger SV | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 3 | WLLL |
| 17 |  Union Berlin | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 17 | -13 | 1 | LLLD |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 0 | LLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonFC Augsburg have won 6 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 7 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Hertha BSC 2-2 and drew with Bayer Leverkusen 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 8D 9L from the last 30 games (43% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Bayer Leverkusen have won 8 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include drew with FC Augsburg 2-2 and lost to SV Elversberg 3-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 9D 7L from the last 32 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedFC Augsburg3-4-2-1Confirmed
Bayer Leverkusen4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
8 playersFC Augsburg5
Bayer Leverkusen3
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
FC Augsburg have averaged 11.0 corners per match at home; Bayer Leverkusen 3.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 8.1 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Bayer Leverkusen have generated 1.51 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 50% of them. They put 4.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Bayer Leverkusen player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
