FC Augsburg vs FC Schalke 04 Prediction, Tips & Odds
FC Augsburg vs FC Schalke 04
Match Preview
The model favours FC Augsburg to win against FC Schalke 04, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. FC Augsburg starts the season in a mid-table position and has shown a mixed form, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches. Their recent performances suggest they can be competitive, particularly with their ability to score goals in crucial moments. On the other hand, FC Schalke 04 finds themselves in a challenging position as they begin the season. Despite finishing lower in the standings last season, they have displayed some resilience, winning three of their last five matches. However, they will need to carry that momentum into this new season to improve their standing and performance. The model indicates a win probability of 55% for Augsburg, with a projected score of 2-1. A key market to consider is Augsburg winning by a margin of one goal. However, a potential caveat lies in the unpredictability of the opening match of the season, where both teams may take time to find their rhythm. The full method behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.8 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.4% probability.
FC Augsburg have been the stronger side, winning 46% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.4% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. FC Augsburg are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
FC Augsburg vs FC Schalke 04| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.18 | 3.50 | 3.05 | 1.70 | 2.10 | 1.57 | 2.30 | |
| 2.24 | 3.54 | 3.30 | 1.69 | 2.02 | 1.58 | 2.23 | |
| 2.20 | 3.50 | 3.25 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.57 | 2.30 | |
| 2.24 | 3.53 | 3.35 | 1.79 | 2.13 | — | — | |
| 2.21 | 3.29 | 2.91 | 1.74 | 2.16 | — | — | |
| 2.20 | 3.30 | 3.10 | — | — | 1.57 | 2.30 | |
| 2.20 | 3.60 | 3.10 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 2.28 | 3.60 | 3.35 | 1.81 | 2.16 | 1.58 | 2.26 | |
| 2.20 | 3.45 | 3.00 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.58 | 2.25 | |
| 2.20 | 3.30 | 3.10 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.57 | 2.30 | |
Betano | 2.25 | 3.55 | 3.05 | 1.75 | 2.15 | 1.60 | 2.27 |
Superbet | 2.27 | 3.55 | 3.15 | 1.72 | 2.12 | 1.60 | 2.30 |
BetVictor | 2.15 | 3.60 | 3.10 | 1.69 | 2.01 | 1.57 | 2.25 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (FC Augsburg leads 3-2)In the last 10 matches between FC Augsburg and FC Schalke 04, FC Augsburg has won 3 times, there have been 5 draws, and FC Schalke 04 has won 2 times. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several matches ending in draws, including three instances of 1-1. Augsburg has had some notable victories, winning 3-0 and 3-0 in their last two meetings, suggesting they can achieve heavy wins. Schalke's last victory against Augsburg was in April 2021, showing a trend where they have struggled to secure wins in recent encounters.
Bundesliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Augsburg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 6 | WW |
| 2 |  SC Freiburg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 6 | WW |
| 3 |  Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 6 | WW |
| 4 |  SV Elversberg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 6 | WW |
| 5 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 4 | WD |
| 6 |  Bayern München | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | DW |
| 14 | FC Schalke 04 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 1 | DL |
| 16 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 0 | LL |
| 17 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 0 | LL |
| 18 |  Hamburger SV | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | -7 | 0 | LL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonFC Augsburg have won 6 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat FC Schalke 04 3-0 and beat Sassuolo 3-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 6D 8L from the last 26 games (46% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
FC Schalke 04 have won 4 of their last 7 matches on the road, drawing 0 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include lost to FC Augsburg 3-0 and beat Hallescher FC 2-5.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 1D 5L from the last 13 games (54% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedFC Augsburg3-4-2-1Confirmed
FC Schalke 043-4-2-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
5 playersFC Augsburg2
FC Schalke 043
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
S. Stegemann has averaged 5.0 yellow cards per match across 2 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 4.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
FC Augsburg have averaged 11.0 corners per match at home; FC Schalke 04 4.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 8.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
FC Augsburg have generated 3.72 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 46% of them. They put 13.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. FC Augsburg player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
