FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt Prediction, Tips & Odds
FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt
Match Preview
The model favours Eintracht Frankfurt to win against FSV Mainz 05, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Frankfurt's season has started positively, sitting in 6th place after their opening match, which ended in a high-scoring draw. Their attack has shown promise, scoring three goals while also conceding three, highlighting their potential for both offensive and defensive improvements. On the other hand, Mainz is currently in 8th position, having played just one match that resulted in a draw. Although they have a solid recent form with three wins and two draws in their last five matches, their lack of goals in the current season raises concerns about their attacking capabilities. They have yet to score this season, which could prove detrimental against a more dynamic Frankfurt side. The model indicates a win probability of 55% for Eintracht Frankfurt, with a projected score of 2-1. One key market to watch is the goals market, where over 2.5 goals may be appealing given both teams' scoring potential. However, if Mainz can tighten their defense and find their scoring touch, they could complicate things for Frankfurt. The full method behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, created by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which uses an in-house model analyzing expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (5.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.3% probability.
FSV Mainz 05 have been the stronger side, winning 60% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 12.3% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. FSV Mainz 05 are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.81 | 4.15 | 4.20 | 1.40 | 2.68 | 1.42 | 2.65 | |
| 1.80 | 4.10 | 4.10 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.40 | 2.80 | |
| 1.82 | 4.16 | 4.18 | 1.45 | 2.89 | — | — | |
| 1.77 | 3.83 | 3.70 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.80 | 3.80 | 3.80 | — | — | 1.40 | 2.75 | |
| 1.75 | 4.20 | 4.00 | 1.44 | 2.75 | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
| 1.84 | 4.22 | 4.26 | 1.40 | 2.68 | 1.42 | 2.69 | |
Betano | 1.80 | 4.15 | 4.00 | 1.47 | 2.75 | 1.47 | 2.57 |
BetVictor | 1.75 | 4.20 | 3.90 | 1.41 | 2.62 | 1.40 | 2.70 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Eintracht Frankfurt leads 4-2)In the last 10 matches between FSV Mainz 05 and Eintracht Frankfurt, both teams have won 4 times, with 2 draws also recorded. The scorelines indicate a fairly competitive rivalry, with several closely contested matches, evidenced by 4 games ending in a 1-1 or 2-2 draw. However, there were also instances of heavier defeats, such as Eintracht's 3-0 win in May 2023. The most recent victory for Mainz came in March 2026, where they won 2-1, highlighting that both teams have had their moments, but neither has established a clear dominance in this matchup.
Bundesliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 12 | WWWW |
| 2 |  Bayern München | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 12 | 10 | WWDW |
| 3 |  SC Freiburg | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 10 | DWWW |
| 4 |  FC Augsburg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 7 | LDWW |
| 5 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 7 | WDWL |
| 6 | FSV Mainz 05 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 7 | WLWD |
| 10 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 5 | DWLD |
| 16 |  Hamburger SV | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 3 | WLLL |
| 17 |  Union Berlin | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 17 | -13 | 1 | LLLD |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 0 | LLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonFSV Mainz 05 have won 11 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include lost to FSV Mainz 05 1-3 and drew with FSV Mainz 05 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 21W 8D 6L from the last 35 games (60% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Eintracht Frankfurt have won 8 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include beat FSV Mainz 05 1-3 and drew with Union Berlin 3-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 8D 10L from the last 31 games (42% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedFSV Mainz 053-1-4-2Confirmed
Eintracht Frankfurt3-4-2-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
8 playersFSV Mainz 055
Eintracht Frankfurt3
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
FSV Mainz 05 average 2.6 goals per match at home; Eintracht Frankfurt 2.5 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
FSV Mainz 05 have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 60% of their matches and averaging 2.6 goals per game. FSV Mainz 05 player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
