Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Dinamo Zagreb Prediction, Tips & Odds
Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Dinamo Zagreb
Match Preview
The model favours Dinamo Zagreb to win, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. As they enter the UEFA Europa League, Dinamo Zagreb holds a slight advantage, having recently shown better form in their last five matches with two wins, two draws, and just one loss. Their overall consistency in performance suggests they can capitalize on Hapoel Beer Sheva's vulnerabilities. Hapoel Beer Sheva, currently positioned 13th, starts the league stage with no matches played this season. Their recent form of two wins, one draw, and two losses indicates some instability. This could be a concern as they face a more experienced opponent. With no prior competitive fixtures to gauge their current season strength, it remains uncertain how they will adapt. The model gives Dinamo Zagreb a 47.3% chance of victory, while Hapoel Beer Sheva's win probability sits at 27.0%. The expectation for over 2.5 goals in the match also suggests an attacking game is likely. One caveat for the prediction is the potential for early season jitters, which could impact performance. The full methodology behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, created by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.2 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.5% probability.
Dinamo Zagreb have been the stronger side, winning 67% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.5% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Dinamo Zagreb are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Dinamo Zagreb| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.45 | 3.60 | 1.98 | 1.65 | 2.20 | 1.55 | 2.30 | |
| 4.05 | 3.88 | 1.85 | 1.63 | 2.29 | 1.56 | 2.27 | |
| 4.00 | 3.80 | 1.83 | 1.65 | 2.20 | 1.57 | 2.38 | |
| 4.15 | 3.90 | 1.86 | 1.64 | 2.33 | — | — | |
| 3.18 | 3.28 | 1.88 | — | — | — | — | |
| 3.80 | 3.60 | 1.85 | — | — | 1.57 | 2.38 | |
| 4.00 | 3.80 | 1.83 | 1.67 | 2.20 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 4.11 | 3.93 | 1.88 | 1.66 | 2.33 | 1.56 | 2.30 | |
| 3.35 | 3.80 | 2.02 | 1.63 | 2.25 | 1.54 | 2.33 | |
| 3.40 | 3.60 | 2.00 | 1.65 | 2.20 | 1.57 | 2.38 | |
Betano | 4.25 | 3.90 | 1.87 | 1.67 | 2.27 | 1.60 | 2.27 |
BetVictor | 3.90 | 3.90 | 1.80 | 1.58 | 2.19 | 1.53 | 2.30 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 2 Meetings (Dinamo Zagreb leads 1-0)The head-to-head record between Hapoel Beer Sheva and Dinamo Zagreb shows 0 wins for Hapoel Beer Sheva, 1 draw, and 1 win for Dinamo Zagreb. The matches reflect a notable disparity, with Dinamo Zagreb achieving a heavy 5-0 victory in their most recent encounter, while the earlier match ended in a 2-2 draw. This indicates a tendency for Dinamo Zagreb to dominate, particularly evident in their substantial win margin. Hapoel Beer Sheva has not secured a victory against Dinamo Zagreb in their last two meetings, highlighting a challenging historical matchup for them.
UEFA Europa League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Juventus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 2 |  Crystal Palace | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 3 |  Sparta Praha | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 4 |  Beşiktaş | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 5 |  Union St. Gilloise | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 6 |  Ferencvarosi TC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 19 | Dinamo Zagreb | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | D |
| 20 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | D |
| 34 |  Plzen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | L |
| 35 |  Lech Poznan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 | L |
| 36 |  NEC Nijmegen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 | L |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonHapoel Beer Sheva have won 4 of their last 10 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include beat Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1-0 and drew with Dinamo Zagreb 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 4D 8L from the last 22 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Dinamo Zagreb have won 6 of their last 10 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 2. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Hapoel Beer Sheva 0-0 and lost to NK Osijek 4-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 6D 2L from the last 24 games (67% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedHapoel Beer Sheva4-3-3Confirmed
Dinamo Zagreb4-3-3Confirmed
Unavailable Players
16 playersHapoel Beer Sheva7
Dinamo Zagreb9
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
J. Brooks has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by J. Brooks to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Hapoel Beer Sheva have averaged 4.4 corners per match at home; Dinamo Zagreb 6.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.6 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Dinamo Zagreb have generated 1.76 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 67% of them. They put 5.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Dinamo Zagreb player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
