Heart Of Midlothian vs Dundee Prediction, Tips & Odds
Heart Of Midlothian vs Dundee
Match Preview
The model favours Dundee to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Dundee currently sits in second place in the league with six points from three matches, showcasing a solid start to their season. Their goal difference of +3 reflects a strong defensive record, having conceded only one goal while scoring four. This efficiency in both attack and defence is critical as they aim to maintain their position near the top of the table. Heart of Midlothian, on the other hand, is positioned fifth with three points from two matches. They have scored five goals, demonstrating their attacking potential, but their single loss indicates vulnerabilities in defence, as they have conceded two goals. Their recent form shows a mixed bag with two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches, which may impact their confidence going into this fixture. The model estimates a win probability of 55% for Dundee, with the projected score being 2-1. A key market percentage indicates that Dundee has a 45% chance of winning by a margin of one goal. However, the main caveat for Dundee could be complacency after a good start, which sometimes leads to underestimating opponents. The full method used in this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, utilizing an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.5% probability.
Heart Of Midlothian have been the stronger side, winning 57% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-0 Heart Of Midlothian win as the most likely scoreline at 13.5% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Heart Of Midlothian clean sheets, in line with their 31% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Heart Of Midlothian are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Heart Of Midlothian vs Dundee| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.51 | 4.20 | 5.75 | 1.65 | 2.20 | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 1.42 | 4.60 | 6.65 | 1.50 | 2.29 | 1.69 | 2.02 | |
| 1.50 | 4.40 | 5.50 | 1.65 | 2.20 | — | — | |
| 1.44 | 5.00 | 6.84 | 1.55 | 2.56 | — | — | |
| 1.40 | 4.50 | 6.00 | — | — | 1.62 | 2.15 | |
| 1.42 | 4.33 | 7.00 | 1.57 | 2.38 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 1.43 | 4.60 | 6.64 | 1.50 | 2.29 | 1.69 | 2.05 | |
| 1.54 | 3.95 | 5.40 | 1.71 | 2.06 | 1.75 | 1.94 | |
Betano | 1.50 | 4.20 | 6.90 | 1.67 | 2.27 | 1.72 | 2.05 |
BetVictor | 1.40 | 4.80 | 7.00 | 1.52 | 2.31 | 1.67 | 2.05 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Heart Of Midlothian leads 8-2)In the last 10 matches between Heart Of Midlothian and Dundee, Heart Of Midlothian has won 8 times, while Dundee has secured 2 victories, with no matches ending in a draw. The scorelines indicate a notable dominance by Heart Of Midlothian, including several heavy wins such as a 6-0 and a 4-0. Dundee's wins have been less frequent and include only one narrow victory of 1-0. Heart Of Midlothian's ability to consistently triumph, often with a margin, underscores a lopsided historical matchup, with Dundee last winning in April 2025.
Premiership Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Celtic | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 18 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Rangers | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 13 | WWWWL |
| 3 | Heart Of Midlothian | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 12 | WWWWL |
| 4 |  ST Mirren | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 10 | LLWDW |
| 5 |  Motherwell | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 8 | LWDDW |
| 6 | Dundee | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 7 | LDLWW |
| 10 |  Aberdeen | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 4 | DLLLW |
| 11 |  Falkirk | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2 | DLLDL |
| 12 |  Kilmarnock | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 1 | DLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonHeart Of Midlothian have won 13 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include beat Heart Of Midlothian 2-1 and beat Heart Of Midlothian 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 20W 6D 9L from the last 35 games (57% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Dundee have won 5 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include beat Dundee Utd 0-2 and lost to Aberdeen 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 8D 14L from the last 33 games (33% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedHeart Of Midlothian4-2-3-1Confirmed
Dundee4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersHeart Of Midlothian
No reported absences
Dundee
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Heart Of Midlothian have averaged 6.8 corners per match at home; Dundee 4.3 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Heart Of Midlothian have generated 1.25 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 57% of them. They put 4.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Heart Of Midlothian player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.