Heart Of Midlothian vs Sturm Graz Prediction, Tips & Odds
Heart Of Midlothian vs Sturm Graz
Match Preview
The model favours Sturm Graz to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Sturm Graz enters this fixture with a stronger recent form, having secured three wins in their last five matches, alongside one draw and one loss. This indicates a degree of consistency that could be crucial in a knockout scenario. Their attacking prowess, reflected in their recent performances, suggests they can find the back of the net against Heart Of Midlothian. Heart Of Midlothian, on the other hand, has had a mixed run with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches. While they have shown resilience, their form indicates potential vulnerabilities that Sturm Graz may exploit. The need to bolster their performance will be essential if they want to advance in the competition. The model gives Sturm Graz a win probability of around 60%, projecting a score of 2-1. However, a key caveat is that if Heart Of Midlothian can harness home advantage effectively, they could pose a significant challenge. For a deeper understanding of the prediction, including the methodology which relies on expected goals and actual results, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.5% probability.
Heart Of Midlothian have been the stronger side, winning 57% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 12.5% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Heart Of Midlothian clean sheets, in line with their 38% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 1 bookmaker. Heart Of Midlothian are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Heart Of Midlothian vs Sturm Graz| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
Betano | 1.98 | 4.00 | 3.40 | 1.67 | 2.27 | 1.60 | 2.25 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (Sturm Graz leads 1-0)In their only past meeting, Sturm Graz defeated Heart Of Midlothian with a score of 4-0. This result indicates a one-sided contest, with Sturm Graz securing a heavy win. There have been no draws or victories for Heart Of Midlothian in this matchup, highlighting their struggle against Sturm Graz. The significant margin of victory suggests that if these teams meet again, Heart Of Midlothian will need to improve significantly to compete effectively.
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonHeart Of Midlothian have won 9 of their last 11 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 0. Their recent home fixtures include beat Rayo Vallecano 2-1 and beat Falkirk 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 4D 5L from the last 21 games (57% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Sturm Graz have won 3 of their last 10 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include beat TSV Hartberg 2-4 and drew with Red Bull Salzburg 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 11D 4L from the last 27 games (44% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersHeart Of Midlothian
No reported absences
Sturm Graz
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Heart Of Midlothian have averaged 6.1 corners per match at home; Sturm Graz 5.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.9 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Heart Of Midlothian have generated 1.24 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 57% of them. They put 4.9 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Heart Of Midlothian player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
