Hibernian vs Aberdeen Prediction, Tips & Odds
Hibernian vs Aberdeen
Match Preview
The model favours Hibernian to win against Aberdeen, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Hibernian currently sits in 8th place in the Premiership with 6 points from 5 matches, having secured 2 wins and 3 losses. Their goal tally of 7 scored and 9 conceded indicates a slightly leaky defence, but their recent form shows a positive trend with two wins in their last five matches, including a crucial recent victory. Aberdeen, on the other hand, is positioned 10th with 4 points from the same number of matches. They have struggled this season, managing only 1 win, alongside 1 draw and 3 losses. Their goal-scoring woes are evident, with just 2 goals scored and 7 conceded. The recent form of 2 wins, 2 losses, and a draw in their last five matches suggests a slight improvement, but overall, they remain below expectations. According to the model, Hibernian has a win probability of approximately 60%, which reflects their stronger position and form compared to Aberdeen. However, a potential caveat is that if Hibernian's defence does not tighten up, they could be vulnerable to Aberdeen's counterattacks. The full methodology used by The Daily Punt Analysis Team involves an in-house model that assesses expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.8 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.0% probability.
Hibernian have been the stronger side, winning 43% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.0% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Hibernian clean sheets, in line with their 26% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Hibernian are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Hibernian vs Aberdeen| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.71 | 3.82 | 4.40 | 1.66 | 2.14 | 1.63 | 2.11 | |
| 1.75 | 3.75 | 4.50 | 1.67 | 2.15 | 1.62 | 2.25 | |
| 1.75 | 3.99 | 4.53 | 1.70 | 2.22 | — | — | |
| 1.70 | 3.37 | 3.80 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.75 | 3.70 | 4.20 | — | — | 1.62 | 2.15 | |
| 1.73 | 3.80 | 4.50 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 1.73 | 3.82 | 4.36 | 1.66 | 2.14 | 1.63 | 2.14 | |
Betano | 1.75 | 4.05 | 4.75 | 1.70 | 2.20 | 1.65 | 2.15 |
BetVictor | 1.70 | 3.90 | 4.50 | 1.65 | 2.07 | 1.62 | 2.15 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Hibernian leads 5-3)In the last 10 matches between Hibernian and Aberdeen, Hibernian has won 5 times, Aberdeen has won 3 times, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a relatively balanced rivalry, though Hibernian has had a slight edge, particularly with several 2-0 victories. Aberdeen's wins include a notable 4-0 result, but this was countered by Hibernian's consistent ability to secure narrow wins. The draws show a tendency for tightly contested matches, with the most recent draw occurring in 2024. Aberdeen's last victory came in 2024, suggesting a challenge in recent encounters.
Premiership Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Celtic | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 18 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Rangers | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 13 | WWWWL |
| 3 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 12 | WWWWL |
| 4 |  ST Mirren | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 10 | LLWDW |
| 5 |  Motherwell | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 8 | LWDDW |
| 6 |  Dundee | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 7 | LDLWW |
| 8 | Hibernian | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 6 | LLWWL |
| 10 | Aberdeen | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 4 | DLLLW |
| 11 |  Falkirk | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2 | DLLDL |
| 12 |  Kilmarnock | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 1 | DLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonHibernian have won 7 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Hibernian 1-3 and lost to Hibernian 2-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 7D 13L from the last 35 games (43% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Aberdeen have won 4 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 10. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Aberdeen 1-1 and lost to Celtic 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 5D 15L from the last 34 games (41% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersHibernian
No reported absences
Aberdeen
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Hibernian have averaged 5.1 corners per match at home; Aberdeen 4.6 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Hibernian have generated 1.59 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 43% of them. They put 3.9 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Hibernian player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.