Hibernian vs Kilmarnock Prediction, Tips & Odds
Hibernian vs Kilmarnock
Match Preview
The model favors Hibernian to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Hibernian currently sits in 11th place after one match of the season, having lost their opener with a goal difference of -1. Despite this, they have shown some competitive spirit in their recent form, winning three of their last five matches, which indicates potential for improvement as they seek their first points of the season. Kilmarnock, positioned 9th, also lost their season opener, but they managed to score three goals in the process, highlighting their attacking capabilities. With two wins and two draws in their last five matches, Kilmarnock has displayed a degree of resilience, but they will need to tighten their defense to avoid further losses, especially after conceding four goals in their last match. The model gives Hibernian a 55.6% chance of winning, with a 25.1% probability of a draw and a 19.4% chance for a Kilmarnock victory. The prediction also suggests a likelihood of over 2.5 goals being scored at 52.9%. One caveat to consider is that if Hibernian's defense falters again, Kilmarnock could capitalize on that, leading to an unexpected outcome. The full methodology behind this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as the analysis comes from The Daily Punt Analysis Team's in-house model, which evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.3% probability.
Hibernian have been the stronger side, winning 41% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Hibernian win as the most likely scoreline at 13.3% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Hibernian clean sheets, in line with their 24% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Hibernian are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Hibernian vs Kilmarnock| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.67 | 3.75 | 4.90 | 1.70 | 2.10 | 1.73 | 2.05 | |
| 1.39 | 4.70 | 7.00 | 1.43 | 2.46 | 1.65 | 2.08 | |
| 1.44 | 4.60 | 7.00 | 1.50 | 2.55 | 1.65 | 2.20 | |
| 1.43 | 5.05 | 7.21 | 1.50 | 2.66 | — | — | |
| 1.36 | 4.62 | 6.38 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.40 | 4.50 | 6.00 | — | — | 1.62 | 2.15 | |
| 1.42 | 4.75 | 6.50 | 1.50 | 2.62 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 1.40 | 4.70 | 7.00 | 1.43 | 2.46 | 1.65 | 2.11 | |
| 1.65 | 3.75 | 4.70 | 1.76 | 2.00 | 1.72 | 1.98 | |
| 1.62 | 3.80 | 5.00 | 1.73 | 2.05 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
Betano | 1.44 | 5.20 | 7.40 | 1.53 | 2.57 | 1.72 | 2.05 |
BetVictor | 1.40 | 4.80 | 7.00 | 1.45 | 2.60 | 1.62 | 2.15 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Hibernian leads 5-0)In the last 10 matches between Hibernian and Kilmarnock, Hibernian has won 5 times, Kilmarnock has not won, and there have been 5 draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive series, with several matches ending in draws, including three 2-2 results. Hibernian has managed to secure narrow victories, with three matches ending 1-0 or 2-0 in their favor. Kilmarnock's lack of wins suggests a challenging matchup for them historically, as they have not triumphed in any of the last 10 encounters.
Premiership Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Celtic | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 18 | LWWWW |
| 2 |  Rangers | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 16 | WWWWW |
| 3 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 13 | DLWWW |
| 4 |  Dundee | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 10 | WLDLW |
| 5 |  ST Mirren | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 10 | LLLWD |
| 6 |  ST Johnstone | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 8 | DLWDL |
| 10 | Hibernian | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 7 | DLLLW |
| 11 |  Falkirk | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 6 | DWDLL |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 5 | DWDLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonHibernian have won 7 of their last 18 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Aberdeen 1-1 and lost to Kilmarnock 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 8D 14L from the last 37 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Kilmarnock have won 6 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include beat Hibernian 0-1 and drew with Aberdeen 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 8D 12L from the last 34 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedHibernian4-1-4-1Confirmed
Kilmarnock3-4-1-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersHibernian
No reported absences
Kilmarnock
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Hibernian have averaged 5.1 corners per match at home; Kilmarnock 4.7 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.9 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Hibernian have generated 1.59 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 41% of them. They put 3.9 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Hibernian player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
