HNK Hajduk Split vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius Prediction, Tips & Odds
HNK Hajduk Split vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Match Preview
The model favours HNK Hajduk Split to win against FK Zalgiris Vilnius, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Hajduk Split comes into this match with a solid form, having secured three wins in their last five matches. This momentum could play a crucial role in their performance, as they look to leverage home advantage in this crucial qualifying round. On the other hand, FK Zalgiris Vilnius has also shown commendable form, winning four of their last five matches. Their recent success may instill confidence, but they will need to overcome the challenge of playing away, which can often complicate matters in knockout fixtures like this one. The model output indicates a win probability favouring Hajduk Split, reflecting their strong home record and current form. However, a caveat exists: if Zalgiris can replicate their recent winning streak and manage the pressures of the away game, they could disrupt Hajduk's plans. The full methodology of this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where the in-house model analyzes expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.8 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.7% probability.
HNK Hajduk Split have been the stronger side, winning 50% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-0 HNK Hajduk Split win as the most likely scoreline at 15.7% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature HNK Hajduk Split clean sheets, in line with their 33% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. HNK Hajduk Split are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
HNK Hajduk Split vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.31 | 5.10 | 7.80 | 1.53 | 2.40 | 1.80 | 1.83 | |
| 1.27 | 5.25 | 9.90 | 1.46 | 2.38 | 1.85 | 1.83 | |
| 1.25 | 5.00 | 9.50 | 1.50 | 2.40 | 1.75 | 1.95 | |
| 1.27 | 5.28 | 8.75 | 1.47 | 2.54 | — | — | |
| 1.28 | 4.68 | 6.66 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.30 | 5.00 | 8.50 | — | — | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 1.30 | 5.25 | 7.50 | 1.57 | 2.35 | 2.00 | 1.73 | |
| 1.30 | 5.65 | 10.60 | 1.46 | 2.38 | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 1.27 | 5.60 | 9.00 | 1.44 | 2.50 | 1.80 | 1.87 | |
| 1.30 | 5.00 | 8.50 | 1.50 | 2.40 | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
Betano | 1.33 | 5.20 | 8.00 | 1.55 | 2.42 | 1.87 | 1.85 |
Superbet | 1.28 | 5.70 | 8.10 | 1.44 | 2.60 | 1.80 | 1.90 |
BetVictor | 1.29 | 5.25 | 9.50 | 1.52 | 2.31 | 1.83 | 1.85 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (HNK Hajduk Split leads 1-0)HNK Hajduk Split has won 1 of the last 1 match against FK Zalgiris Vilnius, with no draws or wins for the Vilnius side. The sole encounter ended with a close score of 2-1 in favor of Hajduk Split. This tight result indicates that while Hajduk emerged victorious, the match was competitive, suggesting that Zalgiris can pose a challenge. There has been no recent winning streak for Zalgiris in this fixture, as they have not secured a victory against Hajduk in their only meeting.
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonHNK Hajduk Split have won 4 of their last 6 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include beat HNK Hajduk Split 4-0 and drew with HNK Hajduk Split 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 4D 5L from the last 18 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius have won 6 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include beat Hegelmann Litauen 2-3 and beat Petrovac 1-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 5D 12L from the last 33 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedHNK Hajduk Split4-2-3-1Confirmed
FK Zalgiris Vilnius4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersHNK Hajduk Split
No reported absences
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
M. Jollenbeck has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by M. Jollenbeck to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
HNK Hajduk Split average 1.9 goals per match at home; FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1.8 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
HNK Hajduk Split have generated 2.03 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 50% of them. They put 6.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. HNK Hajduk Split player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
