Ilves vs Stjarnan Prediction, Tips & Odds
Ilves vs Stjarnan
Match Preview
The model favours Stjarnan to win this matchup against Ilves, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Stjarnan has shown a more consistent form recently, with two wins and two draws in their last five matches, reflecting a stronger overall performance as they navigate the competition. Their ability to secure points in challenging situations could be crucial in this knockout round. On the other hand, Ilves has struggled in their recent fixtures, managing just one win alongside two draws and two losses. This inconsistent form may hinder their chances of advancing in the tournament. The team's challenges in converting opportunities into wins could be a deciding factor in the outcome of this match. The model output indicates a win probability that leans towards Stjarnan, with the potential for a closely contested match. However, one caveat is Ilves' home advantage, which could inspire a stronger performance than their recent form suggests. For a detailed explanation of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team utilizes an in-house model that assesses fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.6% probability.
Ilves have been the stronger side, winning 50% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Ilves win as the most likely scoreline at 14.6% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Ilves are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Ilves vs Stjarnan| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.69 | 3.80 | 4.30 | 1.62 | 2.20 | 1.57 | 2.15 | |
| 1.66 | 3.88 | 4.60 | 1.55 | 2.17 | 1.59 | 2.18 | |
| 1.67 | 3.80 | 4.20 | 1.57 | 2.25 | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| 1.67 | 3.88 | 4.54 | 1.59 | 2.29 | — | — | |
| 1.64 | 3.52 | 3.94 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.70 | 3.70 | 4.40 | — | — | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 1.60 | 3.90 | 4.75 | 1.57 | 2.35 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 1.72 | 4.01 | 4.76 | 1.65 | 2.30 | 1.59 | 2.21 | |
| 1.68 | 3.85 | 4.35 | 1.63 | 2.08 | 1.64 | 2.08 | |
Betano | 1.67 | 3.80 | 4.60 | 1.60 | 2.27 | 1.60 | 2.22 |
Superbet | 1.70 | 3.90 | 4.40 | 1.56 | 2.30 | 1.57 | 2.25 |
BetVictor | 1.65 | 4.00 | 4.60 | 1.57 | 2.21 | 1.57 | 2.25 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (evenly matched 0-0)The head-to-head record between Ilves and Stjarnan shows 0 wins for Ilves, 1 draw, and 0 wins for Stjarnan. The only match played ended in a 0-0 draw, indicating a tightly contested fixture with neither side able to find the back of the net. This lack of scoring suggests that both teams have struggled to assert themselves offensively when facing each other. With only one match recorded, it is difficult to draw broader conclusions about their historical rivalry.
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonIlves have won 5 of their last 6 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 0. Their recent home fixtures include beat Ilves 3-1 and drew with Ilves 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 6W 2D 4L from the last 12 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Stjarnan have won 1 of their last 7 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Stjarnan 5-0 and drew with Vikingur Gota 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 4W 4D 5L from the last 13 games (31% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersIlves
No reported absences
Stjarnan
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
M. Bejtullahu has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by M. Bejtullahu to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Ilves average 2.1 goals per match at home; Stjarnan 1.8 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Ilves have generated 2.20 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 50% of them. They put 6.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Ilves player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
