Kashima vs Avispa Fukuoka Prediction, Tips & Odds
Kashima vs Avispa Fukuoka
Match Preview
The model favours Kashima to win against Avispa Fukuoka, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Currently in third place in the J1 League, Kashima has made a strong start to the season with one win from their opening match, scoring four goals while conceding three. Their recent form also supports this prediction, as they have secured four victories in their last five matches, indicating a solid attacking and defensive balance. On the other hand, Avispa Fukuoka finds themselves in 17th place after one match, where they lost without scoring. Their recent form shows some inconsistency, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches. This lack of offensive output is concerning, as they have yet to find the net this season, which may hinder their chances against a more formidable opponent like Kashima. The model output suggests a high win probability for Kashima, with a projected score of 2-0. However, a caveat to consider is that early-season matches can often produce unexpected results, particularly if Avispa Fukuoka manages to tighten their defence. For a deeper understanding of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Kashima have kept a clean sheet in 55% of matches. Avispa Fukuoka average 1.4 goals per game.
Kashima manage games at home, conceding just 0.84 goals per match. Avispa Fukuoka score 1.45 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 19.9% probability.
Kashima have been the stronger side, winning 74% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 Kashima win as the most likely scoreline at 19.9% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Kashima clean sheets, in line with their 55% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Kashima are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Kashima vs Avispa Fukuoka| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.73 | 3.35 | 5.20 | 2.35 | 1.57 | 2.10 | 1.62 | |
| 1.79 | 3.35 | 4.65 | 2.31 | 1.59 | 2.08 | 1.65 | |
| 1.73 | 3.40 | 5.00 | 2.45 | 1.53 | 2.20 | 1.65 | |
| 1.74 | 3.59 | 5.46 | 2.35 | 1.65 | — | — | |
| 1.78 | 3.05 | 4.22 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.73 | 3.30 | 5.00 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.70 | 3.40 | 5.50 | 2.30 | 1.60 | 2.10 | 1.67 | |
| 1.82 | 3.46 | 4.76 | 2.34 | 1.61 | 2.08 | 1.67 | |
| 1.76 | 3.25 | 4.70 | 2.30 | 1.52 | 2.10 | 1.62 | |
Betano | 1.75 | 3.30 | 5.10 | 2.30 | 1.60 | 2.07 | 1.67 |
Superbet | 1.73 | 3.40 | 5.00 | 2.27 | 1.59 | 2.12 | 1.64 |
BetVictor | 1.80 | 3.40 | 4.80 | 2.19 | 1.58 | 2.10 | 1.65 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Kashima leads 3-2)In the last 10 matches between Kashima and Avispa Fukuoka, Kashima has won 3 times, drawn 5, and Avispa Fukuoka has won 2. This record indicates a competitive rivalry, with a notable frequency of draws, showcasing five stalemates. The scorelines suggest that many matches have been closely contested, with several low-scoring outcomes, including three goalless draws. The last victory for Avispa Fukuoka came in April 2024, indicating a period of struggle against Kashima, who have managed to secure more wins in this timeframe, although the overall results remain tightly matched.
J1 League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Machida Zelvia | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 5 | 13 | 16 | WWDWW |
| 2 |  Vissel Kobe | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 13 | WWWLD |
| 3 | Kashima | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 12 | LLWWW |
| 4 |  Kashiwa Reysol | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 12 | LLWWW |
| 5 |  Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 11 | LWDDW |
| 6 |  FC Tokyo | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 11 | WDWWD |
| 16 | Avispa Fukuoka | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 4 | DLLLW |
| 18 |  V-varen Nagasaki | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 4 | LDLLL |
| 19 |  Tokyo Verdy | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 3 | DLLDL |
| 20 |  JEF United Chiba | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 3 | WLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2027 SeasonKashima have won 16 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 0. Their recent home fixtures include beat Kashima 3-0 and beat Kashima 3-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 23W 5D 3L from the last 31 games (74% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Avispa Fukuoka have won 4 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Kyoto Sanga 2-1 and lost to Kashima 3-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 13D 12L from the last 33 games (24% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedKashima4-4-2Confirmed
Avispa Fukuoka3-4-2-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersKashima
No reported absences
Avispa Fukuoka
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Kashima have averaged 3.3 corners per match at home; Avispa Fukuoka 4.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Kashima have generated 1.82 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 74% of them. They put 4.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Kashima player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
