Kilmarnock vs Heart Of Midlothian Prediction, Tips & Odds
Kilmarnock vs Heart Of Midlothian
Match Preview
The model favours Heart Of Midlothian to win this match against Kilmarnock, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Heart Of Midlothian sits in a strong second position in the league, having accumulated 12 points from their first five matches with four wins and just one loss. They have scored 12 goals while conceding only five, resulting in a positive goal difference of seven. Their consistent form, including three wins and two draws in their last five matches, highlights their current strength. In contrast, Kilmarnock finds themselves at the bottom of the league table, positioned in 12th place with only one point from five games. They have struggled significantly, recording no wins, one draw, and four losses, resulting in a goal difference of -10. Their recent form reflects this struggle, with just one win and three losses in their last five outings. This poor performance indicates challenges in both scoring and defending. The model predicts a win probability of around 65% for Heart Of Midlothian. However, a caveat exists: if Kilmarnock can capitalize on home advantage at Rugby Park and manage to improve their defensive structure, they could pose a threat. For a deeper understanding of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team utilizes an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.3% probability.
Heart Of Midlothian have been the stronger side, winning 57% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.3% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Heart Of Midlothian are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Kilmarnock vs Heart Of Midlothian| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 4.60 | 3.92 | 1.66 | 1.54 | 2.19 | 1.58 | 2.20 | |
| 4.60 | 4.00 | 1.70 | 1.53 | 2.45 | 1.53 | 2.45 | |
| 4.68 | 4.12 | 1.72 | 1.63 | 2.37 | — | — | |
| 4.01 | 3.72 | 1.58 | — | — | — | — | |
| 4.33 | 3.80 | 1.70 | — | — | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 4.50 | 3.90 | 1.73 | 1.62 | 2.30 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 4.51 | 3.92 | 1.69 | 1.54 | 2.19 | 1.57 | 2.26 | |
Betano | 5.10 | 4.30 | 1.67 | 1.60 | 2.42 | 1.60 | 2.25 |
BetVictor | 4.50 | 4.00 | 1.70 | 1.56 | 2.22 | 1.55 | 2.25 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Heart Of Midlothian leads 4-3)In the last 10 matches between Kilmarnock and Heart Of Midlothian, the record shows Kilmarnock winning 3 times, drawing 3 times, and Heart Of Midlothian winning 4 times. This indicates a relatively balanced rivalry, though Heart Of Midlothian holds a slight edge. The scorelines reveal a mix of tight contests, with a number of matches ending in narrow margins, such as three 1-0 victories for Heart Of Midlothian and two 1-0 wins for Kilmarnock. Notably, the last win for Kilmarnock against Heart Of Midlothian came in March 2026, suggesting a competitive but evenly matched history.
Premiership Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Celtic | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 18 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Rangers | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 13 | WWWWL |
| 3 | Heart Of Midlothian | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 12 | WWWWL |
| 4 |  ST Mirren | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 10 | LLWDW |
| 5 |  Motherwell | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 8 | LWDDW |
| 6 |  Dundee | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 7 | LDLWW |
| 10 |  Aberdeen | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 4 | DLLLW |
| 11 |  Falkirk | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2 | DLLDL |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 1 | DLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonKilmarnock have won 8 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Aberdeen 1-1 and lost to ST Mirren 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 7D 12L from the last 32 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Heart Of Midlothian have won 7 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include beat Heart Of Midlothian 0-3 and beat Hibernian 1-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 20W 6D 9L from the last 35 games (57% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersKilmarnock
No reported absences
Heart Of Midlothian
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Kilmarnock have averaged 4.7 corners per match at home; Heart Of Midlothian 6.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Heart Of Midlothian have generated 1.25 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 57% of them. They put 4.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Heart Of Midlothian player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.