Krylia Sovetov vs Rodina Moskva Prediction, Tips & Odds
Krylia Sovetov vs Rodina Moskva
Match Preview
The model favours Krylia Sovetov to win against Rodina Moskva, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Krylia Sovetov currently sits in 11th place with 5 points from 5 matches, having scored 5 goals and conceded 7. Their recent form shows some resilience, with two wins in their last five outings, including a vital win in their latest match. The team has a slight edge in goal difference, which may play a crucial role in this matchup. On the other hand, Rodina Moskva is positioned 13th in the standings, just one point behind Krylia with 4 points from 5 matches. They have scored 8 goals but have also conceded 14, resulting in a goal difference of -6. Their form has been inconsistent, with two wins in their last five games but a shaky defensive record that could be exploited by Krylia's attacking players. The model indicates a win probability of around 55% for Krylia Sovetov, with a projected score of 2-1. A key market percentage suggests Krylia Sovetov has a strong likelihood of winning given their home advantage. However, if Rodina can exploit any defensive lapses from Krylia, they could pull off an upset. The full method of this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model evaluates fixtures based on expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.4% probability.
Krylia Sovetov have been the stronger side, winning 32% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.4% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Krylia Sovetov are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Krylia Sovetov vs Rodina Moskva| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.90 | 3.72 | 4.05 | 1.79 | 2.03 | 1.67 | 2.07 | |
| 1.87 | 3.78 | 4.24 | 1.81 | 2.06 | — | — | |
| 1.90 | 3.16 | 3.26 | 1.76 | 2.06 | — | — | |
| 1.95 | 3.82 | 4.16 | 1.85 | 2.10 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
Superbet | 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.55 | 1.71 | 2.05 | 1.61 | 2.17 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (Krylia Sovetov leads 1-0)Krylia Sovetov leads the head-to-head record against Rodina Moskva with 1 win and no draws or losses. The only match played between these teams ended with a score of 2-1 in favor of Krylia Sovetov, indicating a competitive encounter. This narrow victory suggests that while Krylia Sovetov has the upper hand historically, the match was closely contested, reflecting the potential for tight games in future encounters. Rodina Moskva has not yet secured a win against Krylia Sovetov in their head-to-head history.
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Krasnodar | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 21 | DDDWW |
| 2 |  Dynamo | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 19 | WWWWW |
| 3 |  CSKA Moscow | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 19 | WDWDW |
| 4 |  Spartak Moscow | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 19 | WWLDW |
| 5 |  Zenit | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 9 | 10 | 18 | WWLWL |
| 6 |  Rubin | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 12 | DDDWD |
| 9 | Krylia Sovetov | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 11 | DWDDW |
| 14 |  Lokomotiv | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 7 | DLWLL |
| 15 | Rodina Moskva | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 22 | -12 | 5 | DLLLL |
| 16 |  Fakel | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3 | LDLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonKrylia Sovetov have won 8 of their last 21 matches at home, drawing 7 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include beat Krylia Sovetov 2-1 and drew with Krylia Sovetov 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 12D 14L from the last 38 games (32% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Rodina Moskva have won 5 of their last 12 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Krylia Sovetov 2-1 and lost to Dinamo Makhachkala 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 4D 9L from the last 21 games (38% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedKrylia Sovetov4-1-4-1Confirmed
Rodina Moskva4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
1 playerKrylia Sovetov
No reported absences
Rodina Moskva1
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Krylia Sovetov have averaged 3.7 corners per match at home; Rodina Moskva 2.3 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Krylia Sovetov have generated 2.72 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 32% of them. They put 5.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Krylia Sovetov player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
