Larne vs Tre Fiori Prediction, Tips & Odds
Larne vs Tre Fiori
Match Preview
The model favours Larne to win against Tre Fiori, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Larne enters this match in strong form, having secured four wins and one draw in their last five matches. This positive momentum suggests a solid foundation as they look to advance in the UEFA Champions League qualifiers. Their recent performance indicates a consistent ability to find the back of the net, which will be crucial in this knockout stage. On the other hand, Tre Fiori has shown mixed results recently, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches. This inconsistency could potentially hinder their chances against a confident Larne side. While they have managed to secure two victories, their overall form suggests vulnerabilities that Larne could exploit. The model output gives Larne a win probability of approximately 60%, with a projected score of 2-1. One key market percentage to note is the likelihood of Larne scoring over 1.5 goals in the match. However, a caveat remains; if Tre Fiori can improve their defensive organization and capitalize on any mistakes from Larne, they could pose a significant threat. For a detailed understanding of the prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where the in-house model analyzes expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Larne have kept a clean sheet in 57% of matches. Tre Fiori average 1.6 goals per game.
Combined goal output is high (3.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 20.4% probability.
Larne have been the stronger side, winning 64% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-0 Larne win as the most likely scoreline at 20.4% probability. 4 of the top six outcomes feature Larne clean sheets, in line with their 57% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. Larne are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Larne vs Tre Fiori| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.11 | 6.80 | 23.00 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 2.70 | 1.36 | |
| 1.10 | 8.40 | 23.00 | 1.48 | 2.34 | 2.72 | 1.39 | |
| 1.08 | 8.50 | 19.00 | 1.50 | 2.40 | 2.88 | 1.36 | |
| 1.10 | 9.45 | 25.34 | 1.52 | 2.51 | — | — | |
| 1.12 | 6.66 | 11.08 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.12 | 7.50 | 17.00 | — | — | 2.50 | 1.44 | |
| 1.12 | 7.00 | 15.00 | 1.57 | 2.35 | 2.62 | 1.44 | |
| 1.10 | 8.40 | 23.00 | 1.48 | 2.34 | 2.72 | 1.40 | |
| 1.15 | 7.00 | 16.00 | 1.49 | 2.40 | 2.35 | 1.50 | |
Betano | 1.14 | 6.70 | 17.50 | 1.55 | 2.37 | 2.65 | 1.42 |
Superbet | 1.12 | 7.50 | 16.00 | 1.52 | 2.37 | 2.62 | 1.43 |
BetVictor | 1.12 | 8.50 | 23.00 | 1.52 | 2.32 | 2.70 | 1.40 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (Larne leads 1-0)Larne has a perfect head-to-head record against Tre Fiori, winning the only match played between them. This fixture took place in the UEFA Champions League, where Larne secured a narrow 1-0 victory. The scoreline indicates a tightly contested match, with no evidence of lopsided results. Tre Fiori has yet to find success against Larne, and this solitary encounter suggests that their previous meeting was a closely fought battle.
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonLarne have won 5 of their last 6 matches at home, drawing 0 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include beat Tre Fiori 2-1 and beat GAP Connah S Quay FC 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 3D 2L from the last 14 games (64% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Tre Fiori have won 2 of their last 3 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 0. Their recent away fixtures include beat Faetano 0-1 and beat Murata 0-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 6W 3D 2L from the last 11 games (55% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedLarne4-3-3Confirmed
Tre Fiori4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersLarne
No reported absences
Tre Fiori
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
S. Kringstad has averaged 4.5 yellow cards per match across 2 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 4.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Larne average 1.9 goals per match at home; Tre Fiori 1.6 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Larne have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 64% of their matches and averaging 1.9 goals per game. They put 4.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Larne player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
