Lokomotiv vs Krylia Sovetov Prediction, Tips & Odds
Lokomotiv vs Krylia Sovetov
Match Preview
The model favours Krylia Sovetov to win this match against Lokomotiv, projecting a scoreline of 1-0. Krylia Sovetov sits in 11th place in the league standings with 6 points from their 6 matches, having secured one victory alongside three draws and two losses. Their goal difference is slightly better than Lokomotiv's, indicating a more balanced performance overall, despite conceding more goals than they have scored. In contrast, Lokomotiv finds themselves in a challenging position at 14th in the standings, with just 3 points from their six games. They have yet to secure a win this season, recording three draws and three losses. Their recent form has been particularly concerning, with no victories in their last five matches, which reflects a lack of offensive production as they have only managed to score 5 goals while conceding 8. The model indicates a win probability of 45% for Krylia Sovetov, with Lokomotiv at 25%, and a 30% chance of a draw. One key market to watch is the under 2.5 goals bet, which may be appealing given both teams' struggles to find the net consistently. However, Krylia Sovetov could face challenges if they fail to capitalize on their chances or if Lokomotiv finds a way to improve their performance. The full method of our prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, conducted by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.3% probability.
Lokomotiv have been the stronger side, winning 43% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.3% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Lokomotiv are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Lokomotiv vs Krylia Sovetov| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.86 | 3.86 | 4.10 | 1.77 | 2.06 | 1.66 | 2.09 | |
| 1.88 | 3.91 | 4.05 | 1.78 | 2.10 | — | — | |
| 1.84 | 3.22 | 3.42 | 1.70 | 2.13 | — | — | |
| 1.91 | 3.96 | 4.20 | 1.83 | 2.13 | 1.66 | 2.12 | |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (evenly matched 2-2)In their last 10 meetings, Lokomotiv and Krylia Sovetov have each secured 2 wins, with 6 matches ending in draws. This indicates a tightly contested rivalry, with no team establishing a clear dominance. The scorelines suggest a mix of close encounters, highlighted by multiple draws and only a few heavy victories, such as Krylia's 5-1 win in March 2025. The last time Krylia Sovetov won against Lokomotiv was in April 2026, showing a recent trend of competitive matches where both teams have had opportunities to claim points.
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Krasnodar | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 18 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Spartak Moscow | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 13 | DWWLW |
| 3 |  Zenit | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 12 | WLWLW |
| 4 |  CSKA Moscow | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 12 | DWWDD |
| 5 |  Baltika | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 10 | WDLWW |
| 6 |  Dynamo | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 10 | WWLWL |
| 11 | Krylia Sovetov | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 6 | DWLLD |
| 14 | Lokomotiv | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 3 | LLDDL |
| 15 |  Akron | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 3 | DLDDL |
| 16 |  Fakel | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2 | LDLDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonLokomotiv have won 12 of their last 22 matches at home, drawing 8 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Lokomotiv 0-1 and drew with Lokomotiv 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 10D 10L from the last 35 games (43% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Krylia Sovetov have won 4 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Krylia Sovetov 0-0 and drew with Akhmat 3-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 10D 12L from the last 33 games (33% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersLokomotiv
No reported absences
Krylia Sovetov
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Lokomotiv have averaged 4.5 corners per match at home; Krylia Sovetov 4.1 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Lokomotiv have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 43% of their matches and averaging 1.7 goals per game. They put 3.4 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Lokomotiv player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.