Lyon vs Le Havre Prediction, Tips & Odds
Lyon vs Le Havre
Match Preview
The model favours Lyon to win against Le Havre, with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Lyon enters this match with a mid-table position, having finished last season in 10th place. Their form shows some inconsistency with two wins, three losses in their last five matches. However, their home advantage at Parc Olympique Lyonnais could play a crucial role in this fixture. Le Havre, currently positioned 6th, also starts the season with a clean slate. Their recent form indicates a mixed bag, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches. Although they may come into this match with a slightly better recent record compared to Lyon, their overall performance in the previous season suggests they may struggle to maintain a strong start against a more established side. The model presents a win probability of 60% for Lyon, with Le Havre at 25%. While Lyon's home advantage and historical performance could sway the match in their favour, there is a risk that they may not find their rhythm early in the season. The full methodology of our prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team through an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Lyon have been the stronger side, winning 50% of their matches.
Lines averaged across 1 bookmaker. Lyon are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Lyon vs Le Havre| Bookmaker | 1X2 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | |
| 1.59 | 4.66 | 5.79 | |
Double Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 6 Meetings (Lyon leads 3-1)In the last six meetings between Lyon and Le Havre, Lyon has won three times, there have been two draws, and Le Havre has secured one victory. The match results indicate a relatively competitive history, with two matches ending in draws and a mix of narrow and more decisive victories; Lyon won 4-2 and 4-0, while Le Havre's win was a 3-1 result. The most recent encounter ended in a goalless draw, suggesting that while Lyon has had the upper hand overall, Le Havre's win in January 2024 demonstrates they can be competitive.
Ligue 1 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Marseille | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 2 |  Lens | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 3 |  Lille | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 4 | Lyon | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 5 |  Monaco | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 6 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | D |
| 14 | Le Havre | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | L |
| 16 |  Angers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | L |
| 17 |  Auxerre | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 0 | L |
| 18 |  Strasbourg | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 | L |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonLyon have won 11 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat Lyon 3-0 and beat Lyon 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 6D 9L from the last 30 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Le Havre have won 2 of their last 12 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include beat Le Havre 0-1 and lost to Oviedo 3-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 6W 9D 10L from the last 25 games (24% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersLyon
No reported absences
Le Havre
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Lyon have averaged 7.5 corners per match at home; Le Havre 2.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Lyon have generated 1.59 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 50% of them. They put 5.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Lyon player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
