Malaga vs Levante Prediction, Tips & Odds
Malaga vs Levante
Match Preview
The model favours Malaga to win this match against Levante, projecting a scoreline of 1-0. Despite their current position near the bottom of the standings, Malaga has shown some resilience in their recent form, managing to secure one victory in their last five matches. Their ability to compete, reflected in the last five results, suggests they can build on their previous performance and capitalize on Levante’s struggles. On the other hand, Levante is also searching for their first points of the season, having lost their opening match with a concerning goal difference of -3. Their recent form indicates inconsistency, with three wins in their last five matches prior to the season start, but they failed to carry that momentum into their opening La Liga fixture. The lack of goals and defensive vulnerabilities could pose significant challenges for them in this matchup. The model indicates a win probability of 55% for Malaga, while the projected score remains at 1-0. One key market percentage to note is the likelihood of under 2.5 goals being scored in the match. However, the caveat is that if Levante can find their scoring touch or if Malaga's defense falters, the outcome could tilt in a different direction. The full method applied by The Daily Punt Analysis Team is based on an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.9% probability.
Malaga have been the stronger side, winning 35% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.9% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Malaga are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Malaga vs Levante| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.50 | 3.20 | 2.78 | 1.93 | 1.85 | 1.70 | 2.10 | |
| 2.45 | 3.32 | 3.10 | 1.95 | 1.87 | 1.70 | 2.03 | |
| 2.40 | 3.30 | 3.10 | 1.90 | 1.87 | 1.67 | 2.15 | |
| 2.43 | 3.37 | 3.14 | 1.99 | 1.92 | — | — | |
| 2.26 | 3.10 | 2.74 | 1.97 | 1.89 | — | — | |
| 2.40 | 3.10 | 3.00 | — | — | 1.75 | 2.05 | |
| 2.38 | 3.25 | 3.00 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 2.49 | 3.38 | 3.15 | 2.01 | 1.93 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 2.30 | 3.30 | 3.15 | 1.98 | 1.80 | 1.75 | 1.98 | |
Betano | 2.42 | 3.25 | 3.00 | 1.95 | 1.90 | 1.67 | 2.10 |
Superbet | 2.47 | 3.30 | 3.00 | 1.92 | 1.88 | 1.72 | 2.10 |
BetVictor | 2.38 | 3.25 | 3.10 | 1.86 | 1.81 | 1.65 | 2.10 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Levante leads 4-2)In the last ten matches between Malaga and Levante, the record stands at 2 wins for Malaga, 4 draws, and 4 wins for Levante. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several tight encounters, including four matches ending in draws and a notable number of low-scoring games, such as three 0-0 results. Levante has shown a slight edge, particularly with their recent victories, including a 4-2 win and two 1-0 wins. Malaga's last win in this fixture dates back to 2016, suggesting a trend favoring Levante in recent years.
La Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 4 | 17 | 15 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 15 | WWLWW |
| 3 |  Real Betis | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 12 | WWLWW |
| 4 |  Alaves | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 10 | LLWWD |
| 5 |  Atletico Madrid | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 10 | WLWDW |
| 6 |  Sevilla | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 10 | WDLWW |
| 14 | Levante | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 5 | LDWDL |
| 18 | Malaga | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 3 | DDLDL |
| 19 |  Villarreal | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 2 | LLLDD |
| 20 |  Elche | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 2 | LDLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonMalaga have won 2 of their last 10 matches at home, drawing 8 and losing 0. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Malaga 0-0 and drew with Malaga 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 6W 9D 2L from the last 17 games (35% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Levante have won 2 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Malaga 0-0 and drew with Osasuna 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 7D 12L from the last 32 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
8 playersMalaga6
Levante2
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Malaga have averaged 5.1 corners per match at home; Levante 6.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.7 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Malaga have generated 2.27 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 35% of them. They put 5.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Malaga player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
