Motherwell vs Aberdeen Prediction, Tips & Odds
Motherwell vs Aberdeen
Match Preview
The model favours a Motherwell win with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in second place, Motherwell has started the season strongly with one win from one match, scoring two goals and conceding one. Their recent form shows three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches, indicating a solid start to the season that they will look to build upon at home. Aberdeen, positioned sixth, also has three points but from two matches, with one win and one loss. They have scored two goals but conceded three, showcasing some defensive vulnerabilities. Their recent form is impressive, with four wins in their last five matches, but they will need to address their inconsistency if they hope to challenge for a higher position. The model gives Motherwell a 39.6% chance of winning, with a 28.2% probability of a draw and a 32.2% chance for an Aberdeen victory. There is a 50.1% likelihood of over 2.5 goals being scored, and 55.2% for both teams to score. However, Motherwell could be caught off guard if Aberdeen's recent winning form continues to carry momentum, which may impact their chances. For a detailed breakdown of the prediction, please see the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team uses an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.1% probability.
Motherwell have been the stronger side, winning 40% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.1% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Motherwell clean sheets, in line with their 37% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Motherwell are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Motherwell vs Aberdeen| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.32 | 3.45 | 2.88 | 1.83 | 1.95 | 1.70 | 2.10 | |
| 1.80 | 3.70 | 4.00 | 1.69 | 2.09 | 1.62 | 2.13 | |
| 1.83 | 3.70 | 4.20 | 1.67 | 2.15 | 1.60 | 2.30 | |
| 1.85 | 3.83 | 4.28 | 1.74 | 2.18 | — | — | |
| 1.84 | 3.42 | 3.68 | 1.72 | 2.13 | — | — | |
| 1.80 | 3.50 | 4.00 | — | — | 1.62 | 2.15 | |
| 1.83 | 3.80 | 3.90 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 1.82 | 3.70 | 3.98 | 1.69 | 2.09 | 1.62 | 2.16 | |
| 2.08 | 3.35 | 3.20 | 1.85 | 1.89 | 1.66 | 2.06 | |
| 2.20 | 3.30 | 3.00 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
Betano | 1.87 | 3.70 | 4.10 | 1.75 | 2.12 | 1.65 | 2.15 |
BetVictor | 1.83 | 3.75 | 4.00 | 1.67 | 2.03 | 1.62 | 2.15 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Aberdeen leads 5-4)In the last 10 matches between Motherwell and Aberdeen, the record stands at 4 wins for Motherwell, 5 wins for Aberdeen, and 1 draw. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several matches ending in narrow margins; however, Aberdeen has recorded a few heavier victories, including a 4-1 win. Motherwell has also shown strength with multiple 2-0 wins. The draw frequency is low, suggesting that both teams tend to secure wins when they perform well. The last time Motherwell defeated Aberdeen was in January 2025, indicating a slight edge for Aberdeen in recent encounters.
Premiership Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Celtic | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 18 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Rangers | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 13 | WWWWL |
| 3 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 12 | WWWWL |
| 4 |  ST Mirren | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 10 | LLWDW |
| 5 | Motherwell | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 8 | LWDDW |
| 6 |  Dundee | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 7 | LDLWW |
| 10 | Aberdeen | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 4 | DLLLW |
| 11 |  Falkirk | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2 | DLLDL |
| 12 |  Kilmarnock | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 1 | DLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonMotherwell have won 6 of their last 12 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat Motherwell 3-0 and beat Motherwell 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 6D 12L from the last 30 games (40% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Aberdeen have won 4 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 10. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Aberdeen 1-1 and lost to Celtic 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 5D 15L from the last 34 games (41% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedMotherwell4-2-3-1Confirmed
Aberdeen5-3-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersMotherwell
No reported absences
Aberdeen
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Motherwell have averaged 3.8 corners per match at home; Aberdeen 4.6 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Motherwell have generated 1.18 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 40% of them. They put 4.1 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Motherwell player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.