Necaxa vs Monterrey Prediction, Tips & Odds
Necaxa vs Monterrey
Match Preview
The model favours Necaxa to win against Monterrey, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Necaxa has shown resilience in their recent matches, managing two wins, two draws, and only one loss in their last five outings. This level of form suggests a competitive edge, particularly as they look to capitalize on home advantage at Estadio Victoria. On the other hand, Monterrey has struggled in their recent fixtures, with a form that includes two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches. This inconsistency could hinder their ability to mount a strong challenge against a determined Necaxa side. The model indicates a win probability of around 55% for Necaxa, with the projected score reinforcing their status as the favourites. However, one caveat is that if Monterrey can find their rhythm and exploit any defensive lapses from Necaxa, they could turn the tide. The full method behind this prediction, which utilizes expected goals and actual results data, is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as provided by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.7 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.5% probability.
Monterrey have been the stronger side, winning 29% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.5% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Monterrey are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Necaxa vs Monterrey| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.05 | 3.50 | 2.18 | 1.57 | 2.38 | 1.45 | 2.55 | |
| 2.84 | 3.54 | 2.25 | 1.57 | 2.33 | 1.47 | 2.46 | |
| 3.00 | 3.80 | 2.10 | 1.50 | 2.40 | — | — | |
| 3.05 | 3.90 | 2.14 | 1.57 | 2.42 | — | — | |
| 2.62 | 3.38 | 2.21 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.80 | 3.40 | 2.10 | — | — | 1.44 | 2.45 | |
| 3.25 | 3.60 | 2.10 | 1.57 | 2.35 | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| 2.86 | 3.54 | 2.27 | 1.57 | 2.33 | 1.47 | 2.50 | |
| 2.88 | 3.60 | 2.23 | 1.55 | 2.30 | 1.45 | 2.45 | |
Betano | 3.00 | 3.65 | 2.20 | 1.60 | 2.40 | 1.50 | 2.50 |
BetVictor | 2.90 | 3.60 | 2.15 | 1.54 | 2.26 | 1.45 | 2.55 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Monterrey leads 9-1)In the last ten matches between Necaxa and Monterrey, Necaxa has won once, while Monterrey has won nine times, resulting in a dominant head-to-head record for Monterrey. The scorelines indicate a pattern of heavy defeats for Necaxa, with Monterrey winning by margins of three or more goals on multiple occasions, including a notable 4-0 victory. Additionally, there have been no draws in this period, showcasing a clear advantage for Monterrey. Necaxa's sole victory came in October 2021, highlighting their struggles to find success against Monterrey in recent encounters.
Liga MX Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CF Pachuca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 2 |  Club Tijuana | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 3 |  Toluca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 4 | Monterrey | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 5 |  Cruz Azul | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 6 |  Atlas | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 7 | Necaxa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 16 |  Tigres UANL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 | L |
| 17 |  Guadalajara Chivas | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | L |
| 18 |  U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | L |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonNecaxa have won 5 of their last 11 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include beat Atlante FC 2-1 and beat Monarcas 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 4D 9L from the last 21 games (38% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Monterrey have won 1 of their last 10 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Atlante FC 1-1 and beat Cancún 1-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 6W 6D 9L from the last 21 games (29% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersNecaxa
No reported absences
Monterrey
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Necaxa have averaged 5.2 corners per match at home; Monterrey 4.3 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Monterrey have generated 1.06 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 29% of them. They put 4.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Monterrey player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
