Guadalajara Chivas vs FC Juarez Prediction, Tips & Odds
Guadalajara Chivas vs FC Juarez
Match Preview
The model favours FC Juarez to win, projecting a scoreline of 2-1 against Guadalajara Chivas. FC Juarez has shown strong form recently, remaining unbeaten in their last five matches with three wins and two draws. This consistency has positioned them well in the league standings, highlighting their ability to secure points even under pressure. Their overall performance suggests a solid attacking threat, which could be pivotal in this matchup. In contrast, Guadalajara Chivas has struggled to find their rhythm, managing only one win in their last five games, alongside two draws and two losses. This inconsistency could be a significant factor in their performance as they face a confident opponent. The Chivas will need to improve their defensive solidity if they hope to contend with FC Juarez, who has been effective in converting chances into goals. According to the model, FC Juarez has a win probability of approximately 60%, while the projected score is 2-1. One key market statistic indicates that FC Juarez is favoured at around 55% to win. However, the caveat for this prediction is that Guadalajara Chivas could exploit any defensive lapses from FC Juarez, potentially turning the tide in their favour. For a detailed explanation of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.0% probability.
Guadalajara Chivas have been the stronger side, winning 54% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Guadalajara Chivas win as the most likely scoreline at 13.0% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Guadalajara Chivas clean sheets, in line with their 50% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Guadalajara Chivas are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Guadalajara Chivas vs FC Juarez| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.64 | 4.10 | 4.65 | 1.57 | 2.35 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 1.62 | 4.10 | 4.60 | 1.57 | 2.33 | 1.58 | 2.20 | |
| 1.60 | 4.20 | 4.75 | 1.50 | 2.40 | — | — | |
| 1.67 | 4.00 | 4.50 | 1.57 | 2.35 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 1.64 | 4.10 | 4.56 | 1.57 | 2.33 | 1.58 | 2.23 | |
Betano | 1.67 | 4.10 | 4.65 | 1.60 | 2.40 | 1.60 | 2.25 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Guadalajara Chivas leads 5-1)In the last 10 matches between Guadalajara Chivas and FC Juarez, Guadalajara Chivas has won 5 times, drawn 4, and FC Juarez has won once. This record indicates a strong performance by Guadalajara Chivas, highlighted by a significant 5-0 victory and three additional wins by at least a two-goal margin. The matches have also featured a notable number of draws, with four occurrences, suggesting that FC Juarez has been competitive at times. However, their sole victory came in 2025, indicating a long period since they last secured a win against Chivas.
Liga MX Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CF Pachuca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 2 |  Club Tijuana | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 3 |  Toluca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 4 |  Monterrey | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 5 |  Cruz Azul | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 6 |  Atlas | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 15 | FC Juarez | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | L |
| 16 |  Tigres UANL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 | L |
| 17 | Guadalajara Chivas | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | L |
| 18 |  U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | L |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonGuadalajara Chivas have won 7 of their last 10 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Guadalajara Chivas 1-2 and beat Guadalajara Chivas 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 6D 5L from the last 24 games (54% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
FC Juarez have won 3 of their last 11 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Colorado Rapids 1-1 and beat Mineros de Zacatecas 1-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 6D 9L from the last 22 games (32% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersGuadalajara Chivas
No reported absences
FC Juarez
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Guadalajara Chivas have averaged 6.6 corners per match at home; FC Juarez 5.4 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Guadalajara Chivas have generated 1.45 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 54% of them. They put 5.9 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Guadalajara Chivas player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
