HNK Rijeka vs Derry City Prediction, Tips & Odds
HNK Rijeka vs Derry City
Match Preview
The model favours HNK Rijeka to win against Derry City, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Rijeka has been in strong form this season, boasting an impressive record of four wins and one draw in their last five matches. This consistency suggests a solid attacking and defensive capability, which is crucial in knockout rounds. In contrast, Derry City has struggled recently, managing only one win in their last five matches, alongside three losses. This poor form could impact their confidence and overall performance, especially in a competitive fixture like this. Their recent struggles indicate potential vulnerabilities that Rijeka may exploit. The model output suggests a win probability of around 65% for HNK Rijeka. However, a key caveat is Derry City's potential to surprise, particularly if they can regroup and find their form on the day. The full methodology of this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where the analysis is based on expected goals and actual results across the season, conducted by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
HNK Rijeka have kept a clean sheet in 55% of matches. Derry City average 1.5 goals per game.
Combined goal output is high (2.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 21.0% probability.
HNK Rijeka have been the stronger side, winning 59% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-0 HNK Rijeka win as the most likely scoreline at 21.0% probability. 4 of the top six outcomes feature HNK Rijeka clean sheets, in line with their 55% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. HNK Rijeka are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
HNK Rijeka vs Derry City| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.14 | 6.20 | 19.00 | 1.55 | 2.35 | 2.45 | 1.45 | |
| 1.11 | 8.20 | 18.25 | 1.59 | 2.29 | 2.64 | 1.41 | |
| 1.11 | 6.50 | 15.00 | 1.57 | 2.25 | 2.50 | 1.50 | |
| 1.09 | 9.26 | 22.50 | 1.58 | 2.29 | — | — | |
| 1.13 | 5.51 | 10.12 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.15 | 7.00 | 15.00 | — | — | 2.50 | 1.44 | |
| 1.14 | 6.50 | 17.00 | 1.62 | 2.25 | 2.75 | 1.40 | |
| 1.11 | 8.20 | 18.50 | 1.59 | 2.29 | 2.64 | 1.42 | |
| 1.15 | 7.00 | 15.00 | 1.52 | 2.32 | 2.43 | 1.47 | |
Betano | 1.16 | 6.10 | 19.50 | 1.62 | 2.20 | 2.65 | 1.42 |
Superbet | 1.17 | 6.60 | 13.00 | 1.60 | 2.20 | 2.52 | 1.47 |
BetVictor | 1.14 | 7.00 | 18.00 | 1.58 | 2.19 | 2.60 | 1.44 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonHNK Rijeka have won 7 of their last 11 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include beat Dekani 2-0 and beat HNK Gorica 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 4D 5L from the last 22 games (59% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Derry City have won 0 of their last 6 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include lost to CSKA Sofia 3-2 and drew with Shamrock Rovers 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 3W 4D 6L from the last 13 games (23% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersHNK Rijeka
No reported absences
Derry City
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
J. Munuera has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by J. Munuera to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
HNK Rijeka have averaged 12.0 corners per match at home; Derry City 4.7 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 9.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
HNK Rijeka have generated 1.34 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 59% of them. They put 3.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. HNK Rijeka player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
