New England Revolution vs Houston Dynamo Prediction, Tips & Odds
New England Revolution vs Houston Dynamo
Match Preview
The model favours New England Revolution to win this match against Houston Dynamo, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in 4th place in the league, the Revolution have accumulated 26 points from 15 matches, with a record of 8 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses. Their goal difference of +4 indicates a solid defensive capability, allowing 18 goals while scoring 22. Recent form shows some inconsistency with two wins, a draw, and two losses in their last five matches, but they remain a competitive side at home. On the other hand, Houston Dynamo is positioned 7th with 23 points from the same number of games, achieving 7 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses. They have a goal difference of -4, having scored 20 goals but conceded 24. Their recent form has been more stable, with no losses in their last five matches, recording two wins and three draws. This resilience could prove vital in a challenging away fixture. The model output suggests a win probability of approximately 55% for New England Revolution, with a key market indicator showing that home advantage is significant in this matchup. However, one caveat is that if Houston Dynamo can maintain their recent unbeaten run, they could pose a considerable challenge. The full methodology behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, utilizing an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.6 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.4% probability.
New England Revolution have been the stronger side, winning 42% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.4% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. New England Revolution are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
New England Revolution vs Houston Dynamo| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.28 | 3.60 | 2.82 | 1.65 | 2.20 | 1.53 | 2.35 | |
| 2.40 | 3.44 | 2.74 | 1.68 | 2.14 | 1.53 | 2.31 | |
| 2.40 | 3.40 | 2.75 | 1.67 | 2.15 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 2.48 | 3.61 | 2.84 | 1.71 | 2.23 | — | — | |
| 2.30 | 3.50 | 2.62 | — | — | 1.57 | 2.30 | |
| 2.35 | 3.60 | 2.88 | 1.67 | 2.15 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 2.48 | 3.40 | 2.65 | 1.74 | 2.04 | 1.58 | 2.23 | |
| 2.30 | 3.50 | 2.63 | 1.67 | 2.10 | 1.57 | 2.30 | |
Betano | 2.42 | 3.50 | 2.85 | 1.72 | 2.18 | 1.55 | 2.35 |
Superbet | 2.42 | 3.50 | 2.85 | 1.70 | 2.17 | 1.56 | 2.32 |
BetVictor | 2.38 | 3.50 | 2.75 | 1.65 | 2.07 | 1.53 | 2.30 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (New England Revolution leads 5-3)In the last 10 matches between New England Revolution and Houston Dynamo, New England has won 5 times, Houston has won 3 times, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a mix of tightly contested and more one-sided matches. Notably, New England secured three wins by a margin of two goals or more, while Houston's victories have included a close 2-1 win as well as a 3-0 loss to New England. The matches have featured a fair number of goals, exemplified by the 3-3 draws, yet there have also been several low-scoring encounters. Houston's last victory in this fixture was in 2024.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 20 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 45 | 18 | 27 | 40 | WLWDD |
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 21 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 43 | 17 | 26 | 49 | WWWDL |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 21 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 49 | 40 | 9 | 39 | LDLDW |
| 2 | Houston Dynamo | 21 | 12 | 2 | 7 | 30 | 26 | 4 | 38 | LWWWW |
| 3 |  Chicago Fire | 20 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 37 | 26 | 11 | 36 | DWWWL |
| 3 |  Los Angeles FC | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 36 | 22 | 14 | 35 | DLLDW |
| 4 | New England Revolution | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 33 | 26 | 7 | 34 | DWLLD |
| 14 |  Austin | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 26 | 40 | -14 | 21 | DWLLL |
| 15 |  Atlanta United FC | 20 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 23 | 35 | -12 | 18 | WWLLD |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 20 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 19 | 49 | -30 | 15 | DLLLW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonNew England Revolution have won 11 of their last 21 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include drew with New York City FC 1-1 and lost to Houston Dynamo 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 7D 11L from the last 31 games (42% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Houston Dynamo have won 7 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include beat Houston Dynamo 0-1 and beat New England Revolution 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 21W 6D 6L from the last 33 games (64% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
12 playersNew England Revolution7
Houston Dynamo5
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
New England Revolution have averaged 5.0 corners per match at home; Houston Dynamo 3.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
New England Revolution have generated 1.20 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 42% of them. They put 3.9 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. New England Revolution player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
