New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union Prediction, Tips & Odds
New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union
Match Preview
The model favours New York City FC to win against Philadelphia Union, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently positioned 5th in the league, New York City FC has displayed a solid season thus far, with a record of 7 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses. They have scored 31 goals while conceding 24, resulting in a positive goal difference of 7. Their recent form includes two wins, one draw, and two losses in the last five matches, indicating a competitive edge as they look to solidify their playoff position. On the other hand, Philadelphia Union sits 13th in the standings with a challenging season, accumulating only 16 points from 18 matches (4 wins, 4 draws, and 10 losses). Their goal difference of -8—having scored 25 goals and conceded 33—highlights their struggles defensively. Despite showing some improvement with three wins in their last five matches, their overall inconsistency remains a concern as they face a stronger opponent. According to the model output, New York City FC has a 54.2% chance of winning, while the probability of a draw is 23.7% and Philadelphia Union's chances stand at 22.2%. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is also significant at 57.6%. One caveat for New York City FC is their recent form, which has shown some volatility. For a detailed explanation of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.2% probability.
Philadelphia Union have been the stronger side, winning 32% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.2% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Philadelphia Union are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.56 | 3.65 | 2.46 | 1.62 | 2.25 | 1.50 | 2.40 | |
| 2.61 | 3.58 | 2.44 | 1.63 | 2.23 | 1.50 | 2.38 | |
| 2.63 | 3.60 | 2.50 | 1.60 | 2.25 | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| 2.73 | 3.70 | 2.52 | 1.66 | 2.31 | — | — | |
| 2.58 | 3.43 | 2.43 | 1.63 | 2.29 | — | — | |
| 2.50 | 3.60 | 2.38 | — | — | 1.50 | 2.40 | |
| 2.75 | 3.40 | 2.50 | 1.65 | 2.20 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 2.55 | 3.50 | 2.55 | 1.67 | 2.14 | 1.55 | 2.30 | |
| 2.50 | 3.60 | 2.38 | 1.62 | 2.20 | 1.50 | 2.40 | |
Betano | 2.70 | 3.60 | 2.47 | 1.67 | 2.27 | 1.52 | 2.45 |
BetVictor | 2.63 | 3.60 | 2.45 | 1.61 | 2.13 | 1.50 | 2.40 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Philadelphia Union leads 6-4)In the last 10 matches between New York City FC and Philadelphia Union, Philadelphia Union has won 6 times, while New York City FC has secured 4 victories, with no draws recorded. The scorelines indicate a mix of close contests and some lopsided results, notably Philadelphia's 5-1 win in September 2024. New York City FC has struggled in recent encounters, losing 6 of the last 7 matches, which highlights a challenging trend for them when facing Philadelphia Union. The absence of draws suggests that both teams tend to find a winner in these matchups.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 20 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 40 | 15 | 25 | 46 | WWDLW |
| 1 |  Houston Dynamo | 20 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 29 | 24 | 5 | 38 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 20 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 48 | 38 | 10 | 39 | DLDWW |
| 2 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 19 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 40 | 18 | 22 | 37 | LWDDL |
| 3 |  Chicago Fire | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 36 | 25 | 11 | 35 | WWWLL |
| 3 |  Los Angeles FC | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 35 | 21 | 14 | 34 | LLDWW |
| 7 | New York City FC | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 34 | 29 | 5 | 26 | LLDWW |
| 13 | Philadelphia Union | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 30 | 37 | -7 | 20 | DWWWW |
| 14 |  CF Montreal | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 27 | 37 | -10 | 20 | WDDLL |
| 15 |  Atlanta United FC | 20 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 23 | 35 | -12 | 18 | WWLLD |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 20 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 19 | 49 | -30 | 15 | DLLLW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonNew York City FC have won 6 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include lost to New York City FC 2-3 and lost to New York City FC 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 7D 14L from the last 33 games (36% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Philadelphia Union have won 3 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include beat New York City FC 2-3 and lost to Cruz Azul 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 6D 15L from the last 31 games (32% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedNew York City FC4-2-3-1Confirmed
Philadelphia Union4-4-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
12 playersNew York City FC10
Philadelphia Union2
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
S. Demianchuk has averaged 7.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 4.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
New York City FC have averaged 2.8 corners per match at home; Philadelphia Union 6.3 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Philadelphia Union have generated 2.30 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 32% of them. They put 5.9 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Philadelphia Union player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
