Olympiakos Piraeus vs Jagiellonia Prediction, Tips & Odds
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Jagiellonia
Match Preview
The model favours Olympiakos Piraeus to win against Jagiellonia, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Olympiakos enters this match with a solid recent form, having secured three wins and one draw in their last five matches. This performance positions them well as they prepare for their first UEFA Europa League game of the season, even though they have yet to play a league match this term. On the other hand, Jagiellonia also boasts a decent form, with three wins in their last five matches, including a win streak before a recent draw. However, they find themselves in a lower league position, which may impact their confidence as they face a historically stronger opponent on an international stage. Both teams are entering this match with no points in the current league standings, making this fixture critical for establishing momentum. The model gives Olympiakos a win probability of 68.5%, with a 20% chance of a draw and 11.5% for a Jagiellonia victory. While the statistical edge is with Olympiakos, a potential caveat is that early-season matches can often produce unexpected results, particularly as teams adjust to new dynamics. For a more detailed understanding of how these predictions were formulated, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 45% of matches. Jagiellonia average 1.9 goals per game.
Combined goal output is high (3.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.3% probability.
Olympiakos Piraeus have been the stronger side, winning 41% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-0 Olympiakos Piraeus win as the most likely scoreline at 16.3% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Olympiakos Piraeus clean sheets, in line with their 45% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Olympiakos Piraeus are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Jagiellonia| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.36 | 4.75 | 8.10 | 1.62 | 2.25 | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 1.29 | 5.50 | 11.25 | 1.66 | 2.23 | 2.08 | 1.67 | |
| 1.29 | 5.50 | 11.00 | 1.60 | 2.30 | 2.05 | 1.75 | |
| 1.31 | 5.60 | 10.66 | 1.64 | 2.29 | — | — | |
| 1.30 | 4.38 | 6.86 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.30 | 5.00 | 10.00 | — | — | 2.05 | 1.75 | |
| 1.30 | 5.00 | 11.00 | 1.67 | 2.20 | 2.05 | 1.70 | |
| 1.31 | 5.58 | 11.40 | 1.69 | 2.27 | 2.08 | 1.68 | |
| 1.36 | 4.90 | 8.50 | 1.58 | 2.33 | 1.85 | 1.86 | |
| 1.36 | 4.60 | 8.00 | 1.62 | 2.30 | 1.85 | 1.91 | |
Betano | 1.35 | 5.50 | 9.50 | 1.70 | 2.22 | 2.07 | 1.70 |
BetVictor | 1.25 | 5.50 | 11.00 | 1.62 | 2.12 | 2.05 | 1.67 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (Olympiakos Piraeus leads 1-0)Olympiakos Piraeus leads the head-to-head record against Jagiellonia with 1 win and no draws or losses. The only match played between these teams ended with a narrow scoreline of 2-1 in favor of Olympiakos. This indicates a competitive fixture, but it also suggests that Olympiakos has had the upper hand historically. Since there has only been one encounter, it is difficult to draw broader conclusions about their rivalry or any patterns in scoring. Jagiellonia has yet to secure a victory against Olympiakos.
UEFA Europa League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Anderlecht | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Ararat-Armenia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WD |
| 3 |  AZ Alkmaar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 |  Benfica | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WWDWW |
| 5 |  Beşiktaş | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | LWWWW |
| 6 |  Bournemouth | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 15 | Jagiellonia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WWDW |
| 26 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 34 |  Torreense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 35 |  Union St. Gilloise | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 36 |  Plzen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonOlympiakos Piraeus have won 5 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0 and drew with Olympiakos Piraeus 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 10D 7L from the last 29 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Jagiellonia have won 5 of their last 7 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 0. Their recent away fixtures include beat Jagiellonia 2-5 and beat FC Iberia 1999 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 2D 2L from the last 17 games (76% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedOlympiakos Piraeus4-2-3-1Confirmed
Jagiellonia4-3-3Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersOlympiakos Piraeus
No reported absences
Jagiellonia
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
H. Osmers has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by H. Osmers to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Olympiakos Piraeus have averaged 6.3 corners per match at home; Jagiellonia 5.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Olympiakos Piraeus have generated 1.87 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 41% of them. They put 5.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Olympiakos Piraeus player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.