Plzen vs Union St. Gilloise Prediction, Tips & Odds
Plzen vs Union St. Gilloise
Match Preview
The model favours Union St. Gilloise to win against Plzen, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Union St. Gilloise enters this match with a stronger recent form, having secured three wins in their last five matches, alongside one draw and one loss. This performance indicates a consistent ability to find the back of the net, which may play a crucial role in their approach to this fixture. On the other hand, Plzen has had a mixed recent form, with two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches. While they have shown resilience, their overall performance suggests they may struggle to maintain pressure against a team like Union St. Gilloise, who are in better form coming into the match. Without specific stats for the season, it remains challenging to gauge Plzen's current capabilities fully. The model indicates a win probability favouring Union St. Gilloise, reflecting their recent form and competitive edge. However, one caveat to consider is the potential for early-season unpredictability, as both teams are starting their UEFA Europa League campaigns. The full method used for this prediction relies on our in-house model, which analyses expected goals and actual results across the season, as detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.6% probability.
Plzen have been the stronger side, winning 36% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.6% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Plzen are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Plzen vs Union St. Gilloise| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.47 | 3.58 | 2.76 | 1.70 | 2.17 | 1.54 | 2.32 | |
| 2.45 | 3.50 | 2.75 | 1.65 | 2.20 | 1.50 | 2.55 | |
| 2.48 | 3.65 | 2.81 | 1.70 | 2.22 | — | — | |
| 2.39 | 3.38 | 2.66 | 1.71 | 2.17 | — | — | |
| 2.40 | 3.40 | 2.70 | — | — | 1.57 | 2.30 | |
| 2.50 | 3.50 | 2.75 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 2.51 | 3.63 | 2.80 | 1.73 | 2.21 | 1.54 | 2.35 | |
Betano | 2.50 | 3.50 | 2.75 | 1.75 | 2.15 | 1.57 | 2.32 |
BetVictor | 2.40 | 3.50 | 2.70 | 1.65 | 2.07 | 1.53 | 2.30 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (Union St. Gilloise leads 1-0)In the head-to-head record between Plzen and Union St. Gilloise, Union St. Gilloise leads with 1 win and Plzen has yet to secure a victory, with no draws recorded. The lone match ended in a decisive 3-0 victory for Union St. Gilloise, indicating a lopsided result. This scoreline suggests that Union St. Gilloise has had a clear advantage in their encounter, and Plzen will be looking to improve upon this history in future matchups.
UEFA Europa League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Anderlecht | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Ararat-Armenia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WD |
| 3 |  AZ Alkmaar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 |  Benfica | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WWDWW |
| 5 |  Beşiktaş | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | LWWWW |
| 6 |  Bournemouth | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 34 |  Torreense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 35 | Union St. Gilloise | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 36 | Plzen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonPlzen have won 5 of their last 11 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Slovácko 1-1 and beat FK Crvena Zvezda 5-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 5W 5D 4L from the last 14 games (36% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Union St. Gilloise have won 6 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include beat Union St. Gilloise 2-3 and beat St. Truiden 0-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 23W 8D 3L from the last 34 games (68% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersPlzen
No reported absences
Union St. Gilloise
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
I. Frid has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by I. Frid to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Plzen have averaged 4.6 corners per match at home; Union St. Gilloise 4.7 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.7 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Plzen have generated 1.50 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 36% of them. They put 4.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Plzen player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.