Portsmouth vs Derby Prediction, Tips & Odds
Portsmouth vs Derby
Match Preview
The model favours Portsmouth to win this match against Derby, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Portsmouth, currently sitting in 22nd place, has had a challenging start to the season, losing their opening match and conceding three goals while scoring just once. Despite being at the bottom of the standings, they have shown resilience in their last five matches, managing two draws among three losses, indicating potential for improvement. On the other hand, Derby occupies 17th place and has also struggled, losing their first match of the season. They have a slightly better goal difference at -1, having scored one goal and conceded two. In their recent form, they secured one win and one draw in their last five matches but have also faced difficulties, particularly in defence. The model gives Portsmouth a win probability of around 55%, with a projected score of 2-1. One key market statistic suggests that there is a 60% chance of both teams scoring. However, a potential caveat is that if Derby manages to find their scoring touch, they could pose a threat to Portsmouth’s defence. The full method for this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which utilises an in-house model analyzing expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Portsmouth manage games at home, conceding just 1.47 goals per match. Derby score 1.47 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.3% probability.
Portsmouth have been the stronger side, winning 30% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.3% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Portsmouth clean sheets, in line with their 17% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Portsmouth are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Portsmouth vs Derby| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.87 | 3.45 | 4.10 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.93 | |
| 1.92 | 3.45 | 3.82 | 1.97 | 1.81 | 1.79 | 1.89 | |
| 1.95 | 3.40 | 4.00 | 2.05 | 1.75 | 1.87 | 1.90 | |
| 2.02 | 3.54 | 3.91 | 2.04 | 1.85 | — | — | |
| 1.94 | 3.20 | 3.57 | 1.97 | 1.87 | — | — | |
| 1.95 | 3.30 | 3.80 | — | — | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 1.95 | 3.40 | 3.80 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.91 | |
| 1.94 | 3.45 | 3.81 | 1.97 | 1.81 | 1.79 | 1.92 | |
| 1.93 | 3.45 | 3.80 | 2.00 | 1.76 | 1.81 | 1.90 | |
Betano | 1.95 | 3.45 | 4.05 | 2.05 | 1.82 | 1.82 | 1.91 |
Superbet | 2.00 | 3.45 | 3.90 | 2.02 | 1.80 | 1.83 | 1.92 |
BetVictor | 1.93 | 3.50 | 3.90 | 1.90 | 1.77 | 1.78 | 1.93 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Derby leads 3-1)In the last 10 matches between Portsmouth and Derby, the record stands at Portsmouth 1 win, 6 draws, and Derby 3 wins. This indicates a relatively balanced rivalry, with a significant number of drawn matches, suggesting competitive encounters. The scorelines reflect a tendency towards tight contests, with only one match resulting in a heavy win (4-0 to Derby). Portsmouth's last victory over Derby came in 2015, highlighting a struggle to secure wins against this opponent in recent years. Overall, the matches have often been closely contested, with a low-scoring pattern prevalent in several fixtures.
Championship Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  West Ham | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 9 | 11 | 14 | WWWWD |
| 2 |  West Brom | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 13 | WWDLW |
| 3 |  Swansea | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 11 | LDWWD |
| 4 |  QPR | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 11 | DLWWD |
| 5 |  Charlton | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 11 | DLDWW |
| 6 |  Middlesbrough | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 10 | WDWLW |
| 17 | Portsmouth | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 6 | WLLWL |
| 22 | Derby | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 4 | LLWLD |
| 23 |  Burnley | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 3 | DLDLL |
| 24 |  Preston | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 3 | LWLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonPortsmouth have won 3 of their last 11 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include beat Cardiff 2-0 and lost to Derby 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 8D 13L from the last 30 games (30% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Derby have won 7 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Derby 3-0 and beat Portsmouth 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 3D 14L from the last 30 games (43% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
16 playersPortsmouth10
Derby6
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
S. Allison has averaged 3.5 yellow cards per match across 2 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 3.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Portsmouth have averaged 7.2 corners per match at home; Derby 4.6 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.9 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Portsmouth have generated 1.37 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 30% of them. They put 4.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Portsmouth player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
