QPR vs Middlesbrough Prediction, Tips & Odds
QPR vs Middlesbrough
Match Preview
The model favours QPR to win against Middlesbrough, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. QPR currently sits in 4th place with a solid start to the season, having accumulated 4 points from their first two matches. Their goal difference of +2, with 3 goals scored and only 1 conceded, highlights a robust defensive performance combined with a capable attack. Their recent form has been impressive, with three wins and two draws in their last five matches, indicating a team building momentum. On the other hand, Middlesbrough is positioned 11th in the standings, having earned 3 points from their opening two fixtures. With a record of one win and one loss, they have a goal difference of 0, having scored and conceded 3 goals each. Their recent form shows a mixed bag with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches, suggesting some inconsistency which may hinder their chances against a well-organised QPR side. The model gives QPR a win probability of approximately 60%, reflecting their strong form and higher league position. One key market percentage to note is their odds for a win, which sit at around 2.00. However, a potential pitfall for QPR could be complacency, as they face a Middlesbrough team that will be eager to bounce back. The full method behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model analyses expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.6% probability.
Middlesbrough have been the stronger side, winning 38% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.6% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Middlesbrough are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
QPR vs Middlesbrough| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.20 | 3.50 | 2.12 | 1.77 | 2.00 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 3.10 | 3.52 | 2.15 | 1.69 | 2.13 | 1.56 | 2.24 | |
| 3.10 | 3.70 | 2.15 | 1.75 | 2.05 | 1.65 | 2.20 | |
| 3.17 | 3.75 | 2.21 | 1.72 | 2.21 | — | — | |
| 2.78 | 3.06 | 2.15 | 1.74 | 2.08 | — | — | |
| 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.15 | — | — | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 3.10 | 3.50 | 2.20 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 3.10 | 3.52 | 2.17 | 1.69 | 2.13 | 1.56 | 2.28 | |
| 3.35 | 3.45 | 2.06 | 1.81 | 1.94 | 1.66 | 2.10 | |
Betano | 3.20 | 3.55 | 2.20 | 1.78 | 2.10 | 1.60 | 2.25 |
BetVictor | 3.10 | 3.60 | 2.20 | 1.66 | 2.05 | 1.53 | 2.30 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Middlesbrough leads 6-3)In the last 10 matches between QPR and Middlesbrough, the record shows QPR winning 3 times, Middlesbrough winning 6 times, and 1 match ending in a draw. The scorelines indicate a tendency for Middlesbrough to dominate, with several heavy defeats for QPR, including a notable 0-4 loss in March 2026. While QPR has managed to secure a couple of narrow victories, the overall trend leans towards Middlesbrough, who have won by more than one goal on multiple occasions. The most recent win for QPR was in September 2023, highlighting a significant gap in success for them against this opponent.
Championship Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  West Ham | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 9 | 11 | 14 | WWWWD |
| 2 |  West Brom | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 13 | WWDLW |
| 3 |  Swansea | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 11 | LDWWD |
| 4 | QPR | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 11 | DLWWD |
| 5 |  Charlton | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 11 | DLDWW |
| 6 | Middlesbrough | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 10 | WDWLW |
| 22 |  Derby | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 4 | LLWLD |
| 23 |  Burnley | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 3 | DLDLL |
| 24 |  Preston | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 3 | LWLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonQPR have won 6 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Middlesbrough 0-1 and beat Cardiff 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 6D 11L from the last 29 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Middlesbrough have won 6 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Middlesbrough 3-0 and beat QPR 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 11D 9L from the last 32 games (38% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedQPR3-5-2Confirmed
Middlesbrough3-4-2-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
4 playersQPR2
Middlesbrough2
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
A. Madley has averaged 3.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
QPR have averaged 3.0 corners per match at home; Middlesbrough 6.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.9 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Middlesbrough have generated 2.03 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 38% of them. They put 4.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Middlesbrough player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
