Racing Santander vs Villarreal Prediction, Tips & Odds
Racing Santander vs Villarreal
Match Preview
The model favours Racing Santander to win the match against Villarreal with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Racing Santander enters this fixture with a solid mid-table position, currently sitting at 10th. While their season has yet to start, their recent form shows a mixed bag with one win, one draw, and three losses in their last five matches. The key takeaway is that they have shown resilience, managing to secure a point and a win in their last outings. On the other hand, Villarreal finds themselves at the bottom of the table in 20th position. Their recent form has been challenging, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches. This inconsistency may impact their confidence as they look to turn their fortunes around in the new season. With both teams starting fresh, Villarreal will need to overcome their recent struggles to make a strong impression. The model output indicates a win probability of 55% for Racing Santander, with a projected score of 2-1. A key market percentage to note is a 60% chance of Racing Santander scoring more than one goal. However, one caveat is that early-season jitters could affect both teams' performances, particularly for Villarreal as they seek to break their losing streak. For a deeper understanding of how we reached this prediction, refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.2% probability.
Villarreal have been the stronger side, winning 45% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.2% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Villarreal are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Racing Santander vs Villarreal| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.20 | 3.45 | 2.15 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 3.60 | 3.72 | 2.08 | 1.69 | 2.20 | 1.56 | 2.27 | |
| 3.60 | 3.50 | 2.05 | 1.65 | 2.20 | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| 3.63 | 3.65 | 2.08 | 1.72 | 2.23 | — | — | |
| 2.90 | 3.18 | 2.12 | 1.76 | 2.11 | — | — | |
| 3.40 | 3.40 | 2.05 | — | — | 1.57 | 2.38 | |
| 3.40 | 3.60 | 2.05 | 1.67 | 2.20 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 3.68 | 3.70 | 2.11 | 1.75 | 2.25 | 1.57 | 2.28 | |
| 3.50 | 3.65 | 2.02 | 1.67 | 2.18 | 1.57 | 2.28 | |
| 3.40 | 3.40 | 2.05 | 1.70 | 2.15 | 1.62 | 2.25 | |
Betano | 3.55 | 3.55 | 2.05 | 1.72 | 2.20 | 1.57 | 2.32 |
BetVictor | 3.50 | 3.60 | 2.05 | 1.63 | 2.10 | 1.50 | 2.38 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 5 Meetings (Racing Santander leads 2-1)In the last five matches between Racing Santander and Villarreal, Racing Santander has won 2, there have been 2 draws, and Villarreal has won 1. The scorelines indicate a relatively balanced rivalry, with no team dominating. The matches have featured a mix of narrow victories, including two draws and Racing's two wins by a single goal. Villarreal's sole victory was a 2-0 win, which suggests that while Racing has had the upper hand recently, the encounters have often been competitive and closely contested. The most recent win for Villarreal dates back to 2010, highlighting Racing's stronger form in this matchup lately.
La Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sevilla | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 6 | WW |
| 2 |  Alaves | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | DW |
| 3 |  Atletico Madrid | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | DW |
| 4 |  Barcelona | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 5 |  Espanyol | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | LW |
| 6 |  Real Madrid | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 9 | Villarreal | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | DD |
| 14 | Racing Santander | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1 | LD |
| 18 |  Athletic Club | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 | L |
| 19 |  Malaga | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | L |
| 20 |  Levante | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | L |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonRacing Santander have won 4 of their last 7 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Villarreal 2-2 and drew with Alaves 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 5W 5D 3L from the last 13 games (38% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Villarreal have won 5 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Villarreal 2-2 and beat Galatasaray 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 6D 10L from the last 29 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedRacing Santander4-2-3-1Confirmed
Villarreal4-4-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
1 playerRacing Santander1
Villarreal
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Racing Santander have averaged 7.0 corners per match at home; Villarreal 5.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Villarreal have generated 2.48 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 45% of them. They put 8.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Villarreal player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
