Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves Prediction, Tips & Odds
Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves
Match Preview
The model favours Alaves to win this match with a projected scoreline of 2-1 against Rayo Vallecano. Alaves enters the new season with a strong finish to the previous one, having secured three wins and one draw in their last five matches. Their form suggests a team that has found a rhythm, which will be crucial as they look to build on their fourth-place standing at the start of this campaign. Rayo Vallecano, positioned 14th, will be eager to make a statement in their season opener. However, their recent form of two wins and three losses over the last five matches raises some concerns about consistency. With no prior games this season to gauge their current strength, Vallecano will need to find ways to improve quickly to challenge a confident Alaves side. The model indicates a win probability of 60% for Alaves, while Rayo Vallecano sits at 20%. One key market to consider is the likelihood of Alaves scoring at least two goals, reflecting their recent scoring form. However, a caveat for this prediction is that Rayo Vallecano could benefit from home advantage, which might disrupt Alaves’s momentum. The full method used for this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team through an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Rayo Vallecano manage games at home, conceding just 1.26 goals per match. Alaves score 1.56 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.7% probability.
Rayo Vallecano have been the stronger side, winning 38% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 17.7% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Rayo Vallecano clean sheets, in line with their 26% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Rayo Vallecano are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.24 | 3.00 | 3.45 | 2.45 | 1.53 | 2.05 | 1.73 | |
| 2.32 | 3.12 | 3.56 | 2.38 | 1.53 | 2.02 | 1.71 | |
| 2.30 | 3.00 | 3.60 | 2.38 | 1.57 | 1.91 | 1.83 | |
| 2.28 | 3.11 | 3.73 | 2.39 | 1.62 | — | — | |
| 2.24 | 3.02 | 3.10 | 2.51 | 1.54 | — | — | |
| 2.25 | 2.90 | 3.40 | — | — | 2.00 | 1.75 | |
| 2.20 | 3.20 | 3.50 | 2.50 | 1.53 | 2.00 | 1.75 | |
| 2.36 | 3.18 | 3.62 | 2.51 | 1.62 | 2.02 | 1.72 | |
| 2.28 | 3.00 | 3.50 | 2.48 | 1.53 | 2.02 | 1.72 | |
| 2.25 | 2.90 | 3.40 | 2.30 | 1.60 | 2.00 | 1.75 | |
Betano | 2.30 | 3.05 | 3.50 | 2.52 | 1.55 | 2.05 | 1.72 |
Superbet | 2.27 | 3.15 | 3.50 | 2.37 | 1.59 | 2.00 | 1.78 |
BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.20 | 3.40 | 2.22 | 1.56 | 1.95 | 1.75 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Rayo Vallecano leads 6-4)In the last ten matches between Rayo Vallecano and Alaves, Rayo Vallecano has won 6 times, while Alaves has secured 4 victories, with no draws recorded. The scorelines indicate a mix of results, with Rayo achieving several narrow wins, including four 1-0 victories and three 2-0 wins. Alaves, on the other hand, had a notable 5-1 win in 2018, but has struggled to maintain consistency since then. The most recent match saw Rayo winning 2-0, continuing a pattern of Rayo having the upper hand in this rivalry.
La Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sevilla | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 6 | WW |
| 2 | Alaves | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | DW |
| 3 |  Atletico Madrid | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | DW |
| 4 |  Barcelona | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 5 |  Espanyol | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | LW |
| 6 |  Real Madrid | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 15 | Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1 | DL |
| 18 |  Elche | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 1 | LD |
| 19 |  Real Sociedad | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | L |
| 20 |  Athletic Club | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 | L |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonRayo Vallecano have won 8 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Alaves 1-1 and beat Villarreal 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 8D 13L from the last 34 games (38% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Alaves have won 4 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Alaves 1-1 and drew with Racing Santander 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 9D 8L from the last 27 games (37% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedRayo Vallecano4-3-3Confirmed
Alaves4-4-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
4 playersRayo Vallecano2
Alaves2
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
J. Munuera has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by J. Munuera to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Rayo Vallecano have averaged 4.0 corners per match at home; Alaves 6.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Rayo Vallecano have generated 1.61 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 38% of them. They put 9.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Rayo Vallecano player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
