Samsunspor vs Göztepe Prediction, Tips & Odds
Samsunspor vs Göztepe
Match Preview
The model favours Samsunspor to win against Göztepe, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Samsunspor enters this match after a mixed bag of recent performances, with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches. This hints at a team capable of finding form, especially as they look to improve from their current position at the bottom of the league standings. On the other hand, Göztepe has shown strong form recently, remaining unbeaten in their last five matches with four wins and one draw. This performance indicates that they have the potential to compete effectively, despite starting the season at the bottom of the table. However, it is essential to note that their previous results do not carry over to this new season. The model gives Samsunspor a win probability of 60%, with a projected score of 2-1. One caveat is that both teams are starting the season with no points, and any early-season jitters could impact performance. The full method for this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as it is based on an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results over the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Samsunspor manage games at home, conceding just 1.29 goals per match. Göztepe score 1.46 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.9% probability.
Samsunspor have been the stronger side, winning 48% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.9% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Samsunspor are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Samsunspor vs Göztepe| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.22 | 3.35 | 3.10 | 1.95 | 1.83 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 2.18 | 3.28 | 3.24 | 1.89 | 1.88 | 1.68 | 2.03 | |
| 2.20 | 3.20 | 3.30 | 1.91 | 1.80 | 1.65 | 2.10 | |
| 2.23 | 3.42 | 3.36 | 1.93 | 1.94 | — | — | |
| 2.21 | 3.06 | 3.02 | 2.03 | 1.83 | — | — | |
| 2.20 | 3.10 | 3.10 | — | — | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 2.25 | 3.30 | 3.20 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 2.26 | 3.44 | 3.34 | 1.94 | 1.94 | 1.69 | 2.05 | |
| 2.20 | 3.30 | 3.20 | 1.96 | 1.73 | 1.75 | 1.93 | |
| 2.20 | 3.10 | 3.10 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
Betano | 2.18 | 3.40 | 3.15 | 1.93 | 1.93 | 1.72 | 2.05 |
BetVictor | 2.15 | 3.40 | 3.13 | 1.86 | 1.81 | 1.70 | 2.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Göztepe leads 6-3)In the last 10 matches between Samsunspor and Göztepe, Göztepe leads with 6 wins, while Samsunspor has won 3 times, and there has been 1 draw. The scorelines indicate a mix of narrow and more decisive victories, with Göztepe achieving several 2-0 and 4-1 wins, demonstrating their ability to dominate in certain fixtures. The matches have generally been competitive, with a notable 4-3 encounter, but Göztepe's consistent wins suggest they have had the upper hand historically. Samsunspor's last victory against Göztepe came in 2024, indicating a gap in recent success.
Süper Lig Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Galatasaray | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 10 | WWWD |
| 2 |  Beşiktaş | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 9 | WWLW |
| 3 |  Kocaelispor | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 9 | WWWL |
| 4 |  Trabzonspor | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 7 | WLWD |
| 5 |  Amed | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 7 | DWLW |
| 6 |  Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 7 | LDWW |
| 13 | Samsunspor | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 4 | LLWD |
| 16 |  Eyüpspor | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 3 | LWLL |
| 17 | Göztepe | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 1 | LLD |
| 18 |  Konyaspor | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 0 | LLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSamsunspor have won 6 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Samsunspor 0-2 and drew with Samsunspor 3-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 6D 10L from the last 31 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Göztepe have won 5 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Göztepe 3-2 and drew with Samsunspor 3-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 10D 6L from the last 28 games (43% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedSamsunspor4-2-3-1Confirmed
Göztepe3-4-1-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
10 playersSamsunspor6
Göztepe4
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
K. Saglam has averaged 5.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 4.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Samsunspor have averaged 3.3 corners per match at home; Göztepe 5.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Samsunspor have generated 1.23 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 48% of them. They put 4.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Samsunspor player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
