San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City Prediction, Tips & Odds
San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City
Match Preview
The model favours a San Jose Earthquakes victory with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in third place, San Jose has had a solid season with 10 wins from 18 matches, accumulating 33 points. Their goal difference of +13 highlights their attacking prowess, having scored 37 goals while conceding 24. However, their recent form shows some inconsistency, with only one win in their last five matches. On the other hand, St. Louis City is positioned seventh with 26 points from the same number of games. They have secured seven wins but have struggled with their goal production, netting only 24 goals while conceding an equal number. Nevertheless, their recent form is promising, as they are unbeaten in their last five matches, with four wins and a draw. This could provide them with the momentum needed to challenge a higher-ranked opponent. The model gives San Jose a 54.8% win probability, along with a 23.0% chance for a draw and a 22.2% chance for a St. Louis victory. The prediction also suggests a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals being scored. A potential caveat for San Jose is their recent form, which has not been as strong as their overall season performance. For a detailed breakdown of our methodology, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis comes from The Daily Punt Analysis Team, using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.7% probability.
San Jose Earthquakes have been the stronger side, winning 59% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.7% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. San Jose Earthquakes are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.02 | 3.85 | 3.20 | 1.50 | 2.55 | 1.45 | 2.55 | |
| 2.07 | 3.78 | 3.08 | 1.42 | 2.51 | 1.41 | 2.64 | |
| 2.05 | 3.90 | 3.10 | 1.44 | 2.63 | 1.40 | 2.80 | |
| 2.13 | 3.97 | 3.19 | 1.49 | 2.71 | — | — | |
| 2.11 | 3.61 | 2.95 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.05 | 3.60 | 3.00 | — | — | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
| 2.10 | 3.75 | 3.25 | 1.48 | 2.60 | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
| 2.12 | 3.70 | 3.00 | 1.49 | 2.55 | 1.44 | 2.60 | |
| 2.05 | 3.60 | 3.00 | 1.44 | 2.50 | 1.44 | 2.63 | |
Betano | 2.12 | 3.95 | 3.10 | 1.50 | 2.67 | 1.42 | 2.72 |
BetVictor | 2.05 | 3.90 | 3.10 | 1.44 | 2.63 | 1.40 | 2.70 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 8 Meetings (St. Louis City leads 6-2)In the last eight matches between San Jose Earthquakes and St. Louis City, St. Louis City leads with six wins, while San Jose has won twice, with no draws recorded. The scorelines indicate a relatively one-sided rivalry, with St. Louis City securing several narrow victories, such as 2-1 and 1-2, but also achieving more decisive wins like 3-0 and 2-0. San Jose's last win against St. Louis City was in a friendly match in 2025, highlighting a trend where they have struggled to overcome their opponents in competitive fixtures.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 20 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 40 | 15 | 25 | 46 | WWDLW |
| 1 |  Houston Dynamo | 20 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 29 | 24 | 5 | 38 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 19 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 40 | 18 | 22 | 37 | LWDDL |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 20 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 48 | 38 | 10 | 39 | DLDWW |
| 3 |  Los Angeles FC | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 35 | 21 | 14 | 34 | LLDWW |
| 3 |  Chicago Fire | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 36 | 25 | 11 | 35 | WWWLL |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 38 | 28 | 10 | 33 | LLLDL |
| 6 | St. Louis City | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 28 | 26 | 2 | 30 | DWDWW |
| 14 |  CF Montreal | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 27 | 37 | -10 | 20 | WDDLL |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 20 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 19 | 49 | -30 | 15 | DLLLW |
| 15 |  Atlanta United FC | 20 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 23 | 35 | -12 | 18 | WWLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSan Jose Earthquakes have won 10 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include lost to St. Louis City 1-3 and drew with Los Angeles Galaxy 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 4D 7L from the last 27 games (59% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
St. Louis City have won 3 of their last 12 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include beat St. Louis City 1-3 and drew with DC United 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 8D 8L from the last 26 games (38% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
9 playersSan Jose Earthquakes5
St. Louis City4
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
J. Freemon has averaged 3.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
San Jose Earthquakes have averaged 6.4 corners per match at home; St. Louis City 5.9 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
San Jose Earthquakes have generated 1.83 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 59% of them. They put 5.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. San Jose Earthquakes player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
