San Lorenzo vs Gimnasia M. Prediction, Tips & Odds
San Lorenzo vs Gimnasia M.
Match Preview
The model favours San Lorenzo to win with a projected scoreline of 1-0. Currently sitting in 7th place, San Lorenzo has secured 22 points from 16 matches, with a balance of five wins, seven draws, and four losses. Their goal difference stands at zero, indicating that they have scored 14 goals while conceding the same number. However, their recent form has been concerning, as they have failed to secure a win in their last five matches, recording three draws and two losses. On the other hand, Gimnasia M. occupies 11th position in the league, having gained 19 points from their 16 matches. They have a similar goal tally to San Lorenzo, scoring 14 goals but conceding 22, which results in a negative goal difference of -8. Despite their lower standing, Gimnasia M. has shown resilience in their recent outings, with two wins and two draws in their last five matches, which may give them some momentum heading into this fixture. The model suggests that San Lorenzo has a win probability of approximately 55%, with a projected score of 1-0. One key market percentage indicates that San Lorenzo is favoured by the betting odds. However, the team’s ongoing struggle to find form could pose a risk, especially if they fail to convert their chances. For a deeper understanding of this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where the in-house model analyses expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
San Lorenzo have kept a clean sheet in 50% of matches. Gimnasia M. average 0.8 goals per game.
San Lorenzo manage games at home, conceding just 0.81 goals per match. Gimnasia M. score 0.83 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 21.3% probability.
San Lorenzo have been the stronger side, winning 27% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 San Lorenzo win as the most likely scoreline at 21.3% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature San Lorenzo clean sheets, in line with their 50% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. San Lorenzo are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
San Lorenzo vs Gimnasia M.| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.99 | 2.92 | 4.40 | 2.90 | 1.40 | 2.38 | 1.53 | |
| 1.98 | 2.96 | 4.35 | 2.85 | 1.33 | 2.40 | 1.49 | |
| 2.00 | 3.00 | 4.20 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.02 | 2.98 | 4.52 | 3.00 | 1.38 | — | — | |
| 2.00 | 2.80 | 4.20 | — | — | 2.30 | 1.55 | |
| 2.00 | 2.90 | 4.20 | 2.88 | 1.40 | 2.50 | 1.50 | |
| 2.02 | 3.02 | 4.43 | 2.85 | 1.33 | 2.40 | 1.51 | |
| 2.10 | 2.95 | 4.10 | 3.00 | 1.36 | 2.40 | 1.50 | |
Betano | 2.02 | 2.95 | 4.55 | 3.05 | 1.40 | 2.40 | 1.53 |
Superbet | 2.05 | 3.00 | 4.40 | 3.05 | 1.38 | 2.47 | 1.50 |
BetVictor | 2.00 | 3.00 | 4.40 | 3.10 | 1.36 | 2.40 | 1.50 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (San Lorenzo leads 1-0)San Lorenzo hold the edge in this fixture, winning 1 of the last 1 meetings with 0 draws and 0 Gimnasia M. wins. The record points to a tie San Lorenzo have controlled for years, though the draws show Gimnasia M. have at times kept it tight.
Liga Profesional Argentina Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Independ. Rivadavia | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 29 | 15 | 14 | 34 | LDWDW |
| 1 |  Estudiantes L.P. | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 31 | LWDWW |
| 2 |  Boca Juniors | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 22 | 9 | 13 | 30 | LWWWD |
| 2 |  River Plate | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 12 | 10 | 29 | LWWWL |
| 3 |  Velez Sarsfield | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 18 | 12 | 6 | 28 | LDDDW |
| 3 |  Argentinos JRS | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 29 | LWWLW |
| 7 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 22 | LLWDD |
| 11 | Gimnasia M. | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 19 | WLWDW |
| 14 |  Newells Old Boys | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 15 | DDWDW |
| 15 |  Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | 16 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 5 | 24 | -19 | 5 | LLLLD |
| 15 |  Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 11 | DWLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSan Lorenzo have won 5 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Deportivo Riestra 1-1 and lost to Deportivo Recoleta 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 14D 5L from the last 26 games (27% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Gimnasia M. have won 1 of their last 9 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Independ. Rivadavia 5-1 and drew with Platense 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 5W 6D 7L from the last 18 games (28% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersSan Lorenzo
No reported absences
Gimnasia M.
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
San Lorenzo have averaged 4.4 corners per match at home; Gimnasia M. 3.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
San Lorenzo have generated 1.36 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 27% of them. They put 5.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. San Lorenzo player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
