Metta / LU vs Tukums II Prediction, Tips & Odds

Metta / LU vs Tukums II

1. LigaRegular Season - 14
Metta / LU
#1 · 1. Liga
WWWWW
VS
Tukums II
#12 · 1. Liga
WLLLL

Match Preview

The model favours Metta / LU with a projected scoreline of 3-0 against Tukums II. Metta / LU is currently at the top of the league, having played 12 matches with an impressive record of 10 wins, 1 draw, and just 1 loss. Their goal difference of +31 highlights their dominance in both attack and defence, scoring 42 goals while conceding only 11. Their recent form is also stellar, with five consecutive victories, indicating they are in excellent shape as they head into this match. On the other hand, Tukums II finds themselves at the bottom of the standings in 12th place, with only 2 wins from their 12 matches. Their goal-scoring has been a significant issue, managing just 16 goals while conceding 31, resulting in a goal difference of -15. Their recent form shows no wins in the last five matches, and they have struggled to find a way to secure points, which could make this clash particularly challenging for them. The model gives Metta / LU a high win probability, reflecting their strong season performance and current form. However, one caveat is that if Tukums II can somehow galvanise their squad and improve their performance on the day, they could pose a threat. For a detailed breakdown of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures using expected goals and actual results across the season.

Head to Head

Last 1 Meetings (Metta / LU leads 1-0)
1 Metta / LU0 Draw0 Tukums II
21 Mar
Tukums II
1-3
Metta / LU
1. Liga

Metta / LU hold the edge in this fixture, winning 1 of the last 1 meetings with 0 draws and 0 Tukums II wins. The record points to a tie Metta / LU have controlled for years, though the draws show Tukums II have at times kept it tight.

1. Liga Standings

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1
Metta / LU
13111146113534
WWWWD
2
Valmiera / BSS
13102135122332
WWWWD
3
Leevon / PPK
149322417730
WWLLD
4
Riga Mariners
1485127131429
DLWWW
5
JDFS Alberts
147342922724
DWLWD
6
Mārupe
147162420422
WLWLL
12
Tukums II
133281831-1311
WLLLL
13
Smiltene
141491638-227
LWLLL
14
Rēzekne FA
1412111139-285
LLDLL

Venue Record

Current season at home / on the road
Metta / LUHome
6W0D1L
7 playedGF 30 · GA 72.57 pts/game
Tukums IIAway
1W1D4L
6 playedGF 9 · GA 180.67 pts/game

Key Statistics

2026 Season
Metta / LUTukums II
3.19Goals p.g.1.43
1Goals conceded p.g.2.65
38%Clean sheets17%
73%Win rate26%
4.19Avg goals in match4.09
Metta / LU
Recent Form

Metta / LU have won 11 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 0 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat Metta / LU 3-1 and beat Metta / LU 3-1.

Overall, the wider run reads 19W 2D 5L from the last 26 games (73% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.

Match Results: Metta / LUAll competitions
18 Jul
Mārupe
0-4
Metta / LU
1. Liga
10 Jul
Metta / LU
3-1
Spēks
Cup
04 Jul
Metta / LU
3-1
Skanste
1. Liga
28 Jun
Leevon / PPK
1-3
Metta / LU
1. Liga
20 Jun
Metta / LU
5-0
Ķekava / Auda
Cup
13 Jun
Metta / LU
7-3
Super Nova 2
1. Liga
19
Win
73%
2
Draw
8%
5
Lost
19%
Tukums II
Recent Form

Tukums II have won 3 of their last 11 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Riga FC II 2-0 and lost to Super Nova 2 3-1.

Overall, the wider run reads 6W 3D 14L from the last 23 games (26% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.

Match Results: Tukums IIAll competitions
20 Jul
Tukums II
2-0
Rīgas FS II
1. Liga
04 Jul
Riga FC II
2-0
Tukums II
1. Liga
27 Jun
Super Nova 2
3-1
Tukums II
1. Liga
14 Jun
Tukums II
1-4
Valmiera / BSS
1. Liga
31 May
JDFS Alberts
6-1
Tukums II
1. Liga
24 May
Tukums II
1-1
Smiltene
1. Liga
6
Win
26%
3
Draw
13%
14
Lost
61%

Lineups

📋

Lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.

Unavailable Players

0 players

Metta / LU

No reported absences

Tukums II

No reported absences

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The Daily Punt Analysis Team

Data-driven football predictions and betting tips

This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.

Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.