Metta / LU vs Tukums II Prediction, Tips & Odds
Metta / LU vs Tukums II
Match Preview
The model favours Metta / LU with a projected scoreline of 3-0 against Tukums II. Metta / LU is currently at the top of the league, having played 12 matches with an impressive record of 10 wins, 1 draw, and just 1 loss. Their goal difference of +31 highlights their dominance in both attack and defence, scoring 42 goals while conceding only 11. Their recent form is also stellar, with five consecutive victories, indicating they are in excellent shape as they head into this match. On the other hand, Tukums II finds themselves at the bottom of the standings in 12th place, with only 2 wins from their 12 matches. Their goal-scoring has been a significant issue, managing just 16 goals while conceding 31, resulting in a goal difference of -15. Their recent form shows no wins in the last five matches, and they have struggled to find a way to secure points, which could make this clash particularly challenging for them. The model gives Metta / LU a high win probability, reflecting their strong season performance and current form. However, one caveat is that if Tukums II can somehow galvanise their squad and improve their performance on the day, they could pose a threat. For a detailed breakdown of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures using expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.7 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.1% probability.
Metta / LU have been the stronger side, winning 71% of their matches.
Our model projects a 3-0 Metta / LU win as the most likely scoreline at 15.1% probability. 4 of the top six outcomes feature Metta / LU clean sheets, in line with their 39% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 1 bookmaker. Metta / LU are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Metta / LU vs Tukums II| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.05 | 8.40 | 21.00 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.01 | 13.00 | 24.00 | 1.15 | 4.20 | 2.15 | 1.58 | |
| 1.04 | 12.00 | 29.00 | 1.14 | 4.80 | 2.00 | 1.73 | |
| 1.03 | 12.54 | 19.31 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.05 | 11.00 | 29.00 | — | — | 2.05 | 1.67 | |
| 1.09 | 11.00 | 19.00 | 1.22 | 4.00 | — | — | |
| 1.01 | 13.00 | 24.00 | 1.15 | 4.60 | 2.15 | 1.60 | |
Betano | 1.07 | 8.75 | 16.50 | — | — | — | — |
Superbet | 1.04 | 11.00 | 19.00 | — | — | 1.95 | 1.77 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (Metta / LU leads 1-0)Metta / LU has a head-to-head record of 1 win and 0 draws against Tukums II. The sole encounter ended in a 3-1 victory for Metta / LU, indicating a clear advantage in that match. This scoreline suggests that Metta / LU not only secured a win but did so with a two-goal margin, demonstrating a certain level of dominance. Tukums II has yet to earn a victory against Metta / LU, which may impact their confidence in future meetings.
1. Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Metta / LU | 15 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 57 | 13 | 44 | 38 | DWWWW |
| 2 |  Valmiera / BSS | 15 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 40 | 13 | 27 | 38 | WWWWW |
| 3 |  Leevon / PPK | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 26 | 18 | 8 | 33 | WWWLL |
| 4 |  Riga Mariners | 15 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 30 | 13 | 17 | 32 | WDLWW |
| 5 |  JDFS Alberts | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 30 | 23 | 7 | 25 | DDWLW |
| 6 |  Mārupe | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 26 | 24 | 2 | 22 | LWLWL |
| 11 | Tukums II | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 12 | DLWLL |
| 12 |  JFK Ventspils | 15 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 26 | -8 | 11 | LDLWD |
| 13 |  Smiltene | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 39 | -21 | 10 | WLWLL |
| 14 |  Rēzekne FA | 15 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 12 | 41 | -29 | 5 | LLLDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonMetta / LU have won 12 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 0 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat Metta / LU 9-0 and beat Metta / LU 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 20W 3D 5L from the last 28 games (71% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Tukums II have won 3 of their last 12 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Metta / LU 9-0 and lost to Riga FC II 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 6W 4D 15L from the last 25 games (24% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersMetta / LU
No reported absences
Tukums II
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Metta / LU average 3.4 goals per match at home; Tukums II 1.4 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Metta / LU have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 71% of their matches and averaging 3.4 goals per game. Metta / LU player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.