Valmiera / BSS vs Riga FC II Prediction, Tips & Odds
Valmiera / BSS vs Riga FC II
Match Preview
The model favours Valmiera / BSS to win against Riga FC II, projecting a scoreline of 3-1. Valmiera / BSS currently holds the second position in the league, having played 12 matches with an impressive record of 9 wins, 2 draws, and just 1 loss. They have scored 32 goals while conceding only 12, resulting in a strong goal difference of +20. Their recent form is particularly noteworthy, with four wins in their last five matches, showcasing their attacking prowess and solid defence. On the other hand, Riga FC II sits in eighth place with 16 points from 12 matches, marked by 5 wins, 1 draw, and 6 losses. They have scored 19 goals but have conceded 22, leading to a negative goal difference of -3. While they have shown some fighting spirit with three wins in their last five matches, their inconsistency could pose a challenge against the stronger Valmiera side. The model gives Valmiera / BSS a win probability of approximately 65%, reflecting confidence in their strong season performance. However, a potential pitfall for Valmiera could be complacency, as they face a side that has the ability to surprise on their day. For full details on how this prediction was reached, refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.0% probability.
Valmiera / BSS have been the stronger side, winning 68% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Valmiera / BSS win as the most likely scoreline at 13.0% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Valmiera / BSS clean sheets, in line with their 32% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Valmiera / BSS are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Valmiera / BSS vs Riga FC II| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.33 | 4.80 | 6.40 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.31 | 5.10 | 6.50 | 1.33 | 2.83 | 1.63 | 2.06 | |
| 1.25 | 5.00 | 7.00 | 1.33 | 3.00 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 1.28 | 5.26 | 6.40 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.31 | 4.48 | 5.22 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.33 | 4.75 | 6.50 | — | — | 1.57 | 2.20 | |
| 1.36 | 4.75 | 6.00 | 1.40 | 2.75 | — | — | |
| 1.32 | 5.10 | 6.75 | 1.33 | 2.83 | 1.63 | 2.10 | |
Betano | 1.34 | 5.00 | 6.10 | — | — | — | — |
Superbet | 1.34 | 5.00 | 5.85 | 1.32 | 2.87 | 1.56 | 2.27 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (Valmiera / BSS leads 1-0)In their only head-to-head meeting, Valmiera / BSS has won 1 match, while Riga FC II has not secured any wins or draws. The scoreline from that encounter was 3-1 in favor of Valmiera / BSS, indicating a decisive victory. This result suggests a one-sided affair, with Valmiera / BSS demonstrating a clear advantage. Given the single match, it is difficult to draw broader conclusions, but the lack of draws and the margin of victory highlight Valmiera / BSS's dominance in this specific fixture.
1. Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Metta / LU | 16 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 69 | 14 | 55 | 41 | WDWWW |
| 2 | Valmiera / BSS | 16 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 44 | 14 | 30 | 41 | WWWWW |
| 3 |  Leevon / PPK | 16 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 27 | 18 | 9 | 36 | WWWWL |
| 4 |  Riga Mariners | 15 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 30 | 13 | 17 | 32 | WDLWW |
| 5 |  JDFS Alberts | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 32 | 23 | 9 | 28 | WDDWL |
| 6 |  Super Nova 2 | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 23 | WLDLD |
| 8 | Riga FC II | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 23 | 30 | -7 | 20 | LDLWW |
| 12 |  JFK Ventspils | 16 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 11 | LLDLW |
| 13 |  Smiltene | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 19 | 43 | -24 | 10 | LWLWL |
| 14 |  Rēzekne FA | 16 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 13 | 46 | -33 | 5 | LLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonValmiera / BSS have won 9 of their last 11 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include beat Valmiera / BSS 2-1 and beat Valmiera / BSS 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 2D 7L from the last 28 games (68% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Riga FC II have won 2 of their last 12 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Valmiera / BSS 3-0 and beat Rīgas FS II 1-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 3D 11L from the last 25 games (44% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersValmiera / BSS
No reported absences
Riga FC II
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Valmiera / BSS average 2.7 goals per match at home; Riga FC II 1.8 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Valmiera / BSS have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 68% of their matches and averaging 2.7 goals per game. Valmiera / BSS player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
