Valmiera / BSS vs Riga FC II Prediction, Tips & Odds

Valmiera / BSS vs Riga FC II

1. LigaRegular Season - 14
Valmiera / BSS
#2 · 1. Liga
WLWWW
VS
Riga FC II
#7 · 1. Liga
WWWWL

Match Preview

The model favours Valmiera / BSS to win against Riga FC II, projecting a scoreline of 3-1. Valmiera / BSS currently holds the second position in the league, having played 12 matches with an impressive record of 9 wins, 2 draws, and just 1 loss. They have scored 32 goals while conceding only 12, resulting in a strong goal difference of +20. Their recent form is particularly noteworthy, with four wins in their last five matches, showcasing their attacking prowess and solid defence. On the other hand, Riga FC II sits in eighth place with 16 points from 12 matches, marked by 5 wins, 1 draw, and 6 losses. They have scored 19 goals but have conceded 22, leading to a negative goal difference of -3. While they have shown some fighting spirit with three wins in their last five matches, their inconsistency could pose a challenge against the stronger Valmiera side. The model gives Valmiera / BSS a win probability of approximately 65%, reflecting confidence in their strong season performance. However, a potential pitfall for Valmiera could be complacency, as they face a side that has the ability to surprise on their day. For full details on how this prediction was reached, refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.

Head to Head

Last 1 Meetings (Valmiera / BSS leads 1-0)
1 Valmiera / BSS0 Draw0 Riga FC II
21 Mar
Riga FC II
1-3
Valmiera / BSS
1. Liga

In their only head-to-head meeting, Valmiera / BSS has won 1 match, while Riga FC II has not secured any wins or draws. The scoreline from that encounter was 3-1 in favor of Valmiera / BSS, indicating a decisive victory. This result suggests a one-sided affair, with Valmiera / BSS demonstrating a clear advantage. Given the single match, it is difficult to draw broader conclusions, but the lack of draws and the margin of victory highlight Valmiera / BSS's dominance in this specific fixture.

1. Liga Standings

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1
Metta / LU
13111146113534
WWWWD
2
Valmiera / BSS
13102135122332
WWWWD
3
Riga Mariners
1384126121428
LWWWD
4
Leevon / PPK
138322216627
WLLDW
5
JDFS Alberts
137242821723
WLWDW
6
Mārupe
136162219319
LWLLL
7
Riga FC II
136162123-219
WWWWL
12
Rīgas FS II
132381528-139
LDLWW
13
Smiltene
131481333-207
WLLLD
14
Rēzekne FA
1312101037-275
LDLLW

Venue Record

Current season at home / on the road
Valmiera / BSSHome
3W1D0L
4 playedGF 12 · GA 32.50 pts/game
Riga FC IIAway
1W1D4L
6 playedGF 8 · GA 120.67 pts/game

Key Statistics

2026 Season
Valmiera / BSSRiga FC II
2.68Goals p.g.1.91
1.44Goals conceded p.g.1.61
32%Clean sheets22%
64%Win rate48%
4.12Avg goals in match3.52
Valmiera / BSS
Recent Form

Valmiera / BSS have won 7 of their last 9 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Valmiera / BSS 2-4 and beat Valmiera / BSS 4-1.

Overall, the wider run reads 16W 2D 7L from the last 25 games (64% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.

Match Results: Valmiera / BSSAll competitions
18 Jul
Skanste
0-3
Valmiera / BSS
1. Liga
12 Jul
Valmiera / BSS
2-4
Ogre United
Cup
05 Jul
Valmiera / BSS
4-1
Leevon / PPK
1. Liga
28 Jun
JFK Ventspils
0-2
Valmiera / BSS
1. Liga
22 Jun
Smiltene
1-4
Valmiera / BSS
Cup
14 Jun
Tukums II
1-4
Valmiera / BSS
1. Liga
16
Win
64%
2
Draw
8%
7
Lost
28%
Riga FC II
Recent Form

Riga FC II have won 2 of their last 11 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include beat Rīgas FS II 1-3 and lost to Rēzekne FA 2-1.

Overall, the wider run reads 11W 2D 10L from the last 23 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.

Match Results: Riga FC IIAll competitions
19 Jul
Riga FC II
2-1
Super Nova 2
1. Liga
04 Jul
Riga FC II
2-0
Tukums II
1. Liga
27 Jun
Rīgas FS II
1-3
Riga FC II
1. Liga
14 Jun
Riga FC II
2-0
Smiltene
1. Liga
23 May
Rēzekne FA
2-1
Riga FC II
1. Liga
17 May
Riga FC II
0-4
Mārupe
1. Liga
11
Win
48%
2
Draw
9%
10
Lost
43%

Lineups

📋

Lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.

Unavailable Players

0 players

Valmiera / BSS

No reported absences

Riga FC II

No reported absences

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The Daily Punt Analysis Team

Data-driven football predictions and betting tips

This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.

Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.