Super Nova 2 vs Riga Mariners Prediction, Tips & Odds
Super Nova 2 vs Riga Mariners
Match Preview
The model favours Riga Mariners to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in third place, the Mariners have been in excellent form this season, remaining unbeaten with eight wins and four draws from twelve matches. Their goal difference of +15, with 25 goals scored and only 10 conceded, highlights their strong defensive capabilities, which will be crucial in this fixture. On the other hand, Super Nova 2 finds themselves in seventh position with a record of five wins, four draws, and three losses. While they have managed to score 19 goals, their defensive record is less impressive, with 17 goals conceded, resulting in a modest goal difference of +2. Their recent form includes two wins, two draws, and one loss in the last five matches, suggesting some inconsistency that could be problematic against a formidable opponent like the Mariners. The model indicates a win probability of approximately 65% for Riga Mariners, with a projected score of 2-1. However, one caveat to consider is that if Super Nova 2 can exploit any defensive lapses from the Mariners, it could lead to a more competitive match than anticipated. For a complete understanding of the prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, using an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.3% probability.
Riga Mariners have been the stronger side, winning 59% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-2 Riga Mariners win as the most likely scoreline at 13.3% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. Riga Mariners are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Super Nova 2 vs Riga Mariners| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 5.20 | 4.10 | 1.48 | — | — | — | — | |
| 5.70 | 4.30 | 1.42 | 1.44 | 2.43 | 1.58 | 2.15 | |
| 5.00 | 4.40 | 1.44 | 1.40 | 2.75 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 5.20 | 4.25 | 1.43 | 1.44 | 2.50 | — | — | |
| 5.50 | 3.90 | 1.44 | — | — | 1.57 | 2.20 | |
| 5.00 | 4.20 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 2.50 | — | — | |
| 5.91 | 4.30 | 1.43 | 1.44 | 2.43 | 1.58 | 2.19 | |
Betano | 4.90 | 4.20 | 1.50 | — | — | — | — |
Superbet | 5.10 | 4.15 | 1.48 | 1.45 | 2.47 | 1.57 | 2.25 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (evenly matched 0-0)The head-to-head record between Super Nova 2 and Riga Mariners shows 0 wins for either side, with 1 draw. The only encounter ended in a 1-1 stalemate, indicating a balanced matchup where neither team has managed to secure a victory. This single fixture suggests a tightly contested game, with both teams scoring once, reflecting a low-scoring pattern. As it stands, the absence of wins for both sides points to an evenly matched rivalry, at least based on this limited historical data.
1. Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Metta / LU | 16 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 69 | 14 | 55 | 41 | WDWWW |
| 2 |  Valmiera / BSS | 16 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 44 | 14 | 30 | 41 | WWWWW |
| 3 |  Leevon / PPK | 16 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 27 | 18 | 9 | 36 | WWWWL |
| 4 | Riga Mariners | 16 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 34 | 15 | 19 | 35 | WWDLW |
| 5 |  JDFS Alberts | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 32 | 23 | 9 | 28 | WDDWL |
| 6 | Super Nova 2 | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 23 | WLDLD |
| 12 |  JFK Ventspils | 16 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 11 | LLDLW |
| 13 |  Smiltene | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 19 | 43 | -24 | 10 | LWLWL |
| 14 |  Rēzekne FA | 16 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 13 | 46 | -33 | 5 | LLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSuper Nova 2 have won 4 of their last 8 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Super Nova 2 0-3 and beat Super Nova 2 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 6W 5D 5L from the last 16 games (38% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Riga Mariners have won 10 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include beat Super Nova 2 0-3 and lost to Leevon / PPK 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 9D 3L from the last 29 games (59% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersSuper Nova 2
No reported absences
Riga Mariners
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Super Nova 2 average 1.4 goals per match at home; Riga Mariners 2.6 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Riga Mariners have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 59% of their matches and averaging 2.6 goals per game. Riga Mariners player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
