Skanste vs Mārupe Prediction, Tips & Odds

Skanste vs Mārupe

1. LigaRegular Season - 15
Skanste
#9 · 1. Liga
LLLLW
VS
Mārupe
#6 · 1. Liga
WLLWL

Match Preview

The model favours Mārupe to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in 6th place, Mārupe has had a reasonably strong season with six wins from their 13 matches, accumulating 19 points. Their goal difference of +3 indicates a more balanced performance, having scored 22 goals while conceding 19. Despite a recent dip in form, with two wins and three losses in their last five matches, they remain a competitive side. On the other hand, Skanste finds themselves in 9th position, struggling with just four wins and a total of 13 points. Their goal difference of -7 reflects their defensive vulnerabilities, as they have conceded 27 goals while scoring only 20. Skanste has shown some resilience by winning one of their last five matches, but their overall form suggests they may struggle against a stronger opponent like Mārupe. The model gives Mārupe a win probability of approximately 55% in this matchup. However, Skanste's potential to pull off an upset should not be underestimated, especially if they can tighten their defence. For more details on how we reached this prediction, refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team utilizes an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.

Head to Head

Last 6 Meetings (evenly matched 2-2)
2 Skanste2 Draw2 Mārupe
04 Apr
Mārupe
4-0
Skanste
1. Liga
Sept 25
Mārupe
0-1
Skanste
1. Liga
May 25
Skanste
1-0
Mārupe
1. Liga
Aug 24
Mārupe
0-0
Skanste
1. Liga
Apr 24
Skanste
1-1
Mārupe
1. Liga
Jun 23
Mārupe
2-0
Skanste
Cup

Skanste and Mārupe have been evenly matched in this fixture, with 2 wins each and 2 draws across the last 6 meetings. The record offers no clear edge to either side, and the scorelines have stayed mostly tight rather than one-sided.

1. Liga Standings

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1
Metta / LU
13111146113534
WWWWD
2
Valmiera / BSS
13102135122332
WWWWD
3
Leevon / PPK
149322417730
WWLLD
4
Riga Mariners
1485127131429
DLWWW
5
JDFS Alberts
147342922724
DWLWD
6
Mārupe
147162420422
WLWLL
9
Skanste
144192129-813
LLLLW
12
Tukums II
133281831-1311
WLLLL
13
Smiltene
141491638-227
LWLLL
14
Rēzekne FA
1412111139-285
LLDLL

Venue Record

Current season at home / on the road
SkansteHome
2W1D4L
7 playedGF 8 · GA 111.00 pts/game
MārupeAway
4W1D2L
7 playedGF 10 · GA 61.86 pts/game

Key Statistics

2026 Season
SkansteMārupe
1.48Goals p.g.1.44
1.76Goals conceded p.g.1.48
20%Clean sheets22%
36%Win rate41%
3.24Avg goals in match2.93
Skanste
Recent Form

Skanste have won 4 of their last 11 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Skanste 0-3 and lost to Skanste 0-3.

Overall, the wider run reads 9W 4D 12L from the last 25 games (36% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.

Match Results: SkansteAll competitions
25 Jul
Leevon / PPK
2-1
Skanste
1. Liga
18 Jul
Skanste
0-3
Valmiera / BSS
1. Liga
11 Jul
Skanste
0-3
JFK Ventspils
1. Liga
04 Jul
Metta / LU
3-1
Skanste
1. Liga
28 Jun
Smiltene
2-4
Skanste
1. Liga
14 Jun
Skanste
0-2
Riga Mariners
1. Liga
9
Win
36%
4
Draw
16%
12
Lost
48%
Mārupe
Recent Form

Mārupe have won 5 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include beat Mārupe 1-2 and lost to Riga Mariners 2-0.

Overall, the wider run reads 11W 2D 14L from the last 27 games (41% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.

Match Results: MārupeAll competitions
25 Jul
Rēzekne FA
1-2
Mārupe
1. Liga
18 Jul
Mārupe
0-4
Metta / LU
1. Liga
12 Jul
Mārupe
0-1
Grobiņa
Cup
04 Jul
Mārupe
2-1
Smiltene
1. Liga
27 Jun
Riga Mariners
2-0
Mārupe
1. Liga
19 Jun
Mārupe
4-2
Aliance
Cup
11
Win
41%
2
Draw
7%
14
Lost
52%

Lineups

📋

Lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.

Unavailable Players

0 players

Skanste

No reported absences

Mārupe

No reported absences

What's Your Prediction?

Pick the result you expect

The Daily Punt Analysis Team

Data-driven football predictions and betting tips

This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.

Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.