Skanste vs Mārupe Prediction, Tips & Odds
Skanste vs Mārupe
Match Preview
The model favours Mārupe to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in 6th place, Mārupe has had a reasonably strong season with six wins from their 13 matches, accumulating 19 points. Their goal difference of +3 indicates a more balanced performance, having scored 22 goals while conceding 19. Despite a recent dip in form, with two wins and three losses in their last five matches, they remain a competitive side. On the other hand, Skanste finds themselves in 9th position, struggling with just four wins and a total of 13 points. Their goal difference of -7 reflects their defensive vulnerabilities, as they have conceded 27 goals while scoring only 20. Skanste has shown some resilience by winning one of their last five matches, but their overall form suggests they may struggle against a stronger opponent like Mārupe. The model gives Mārupe a win probability of approximately 55% in this matchup. However, Skanste's potential to pull off an upset should not be underestimated, especially if they can tighten their defence. For more details on how we reached this prediction, refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team utilizes an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.2 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.3% probability.
Skanste have been the stronger side, winning 42% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.3% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Skanste are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Skanste vs Mārupe| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.38 | 3.60 | 2.38 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.44 | 3.42 | 2.44 | 1.43 | 2.46 | 1.38 | 2.67 | |
| 2.40 | 3.70 | 2.30 | 1.44 | 2.60 | 1.40 | 2.75 | |
| 2.41 | 3.34 | 2.44 | 1.46 | 2.44 | — | — | |
| 2.45 | 3.25 | 2.45 | — | — | 1.40 | 2.62 | |
| 2.50 | 3.75 | 2.25 | 1.50 | 2.50 | — | — | |
| 2.44 | 3.42 | 2.44 | 1.43 | 2.46 | 1.38 | 2.74 | |
Betano | 2.47 | 3.55 | 2.35 | — | — | — | — |
Superbet | 2.52 | 3.40 | 2.40 | 1.46 | 2.45 | 1.44 | 2.60 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 6 Meetings (evenly matched 2-2)The head-to-head record between Skanste and Mārupe stands at 2 wins for Skanste, 2 draws, and 2 wins for Mārupe over the last six matches. The scorelines indicate a mix of tight contests, with four matches ending in a one-goal margin, and one match resulting in a 0-0 draw. Notably, Mārupe has had a heavier victory with a 4-0 win, while Skanste’s victories have been more narrowly decided. The most recent match saw Mārupe winning 2-0, suggesting a competitive balance, but with both teams having periods of success.
1. Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Metta / LU | 16 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 69 | 14 | 55 | 41 | WDWWW |
| 2 |  Valmiera / BSS | 16 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 44 | 14 | 30 | 41 | WWWWW |
| 3 |  Leevon / PPK | 16 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 27 | 18 | 9 | 36 | WWWWL |
| 4 |  Riga Mariners | 16 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 34 | 15 | 19 | 35 | WWDLW |
| 5 |  JDFS Alberts | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 32 | 23 | 9 | 28 | WDDWL |
| 6 |  Super Nova 2 | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 23 | WLDLD |
| 7 | Mārupe | 16 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 26 | 25 | 1 | 22 | LLWLW |
| 9 | Skanste | 16 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 30 | 32 | -2 | 19 | WWLLL |
| 12 |  JFK Ventspils | 16 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 11 | LLDLW |
| 13 |  Smiltene | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 19 | 43 | -24 | 10 | LWLWL |
| 14 |  Rēzekne FA | 16 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 13 | 46 | -33 | 5 | LLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSkanste have won 6 of their last 12 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat Rēzekne FA 5-1 and beat Mārupe 4-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 4D 11L from the last 26 games (42% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Mārupe have won 5 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Skanste 4-2 and beat Rēzekne FA 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 2D 16L from the last 29 games (38% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersSkanste
No reported absences
Mārupe
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Skanste average 1.8 goals per match at home; Mārupe 1.4 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Skanste have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 42% of their matches and averaging 1.8 goals per game. Skanste player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
