Skanste vs Mārupe Prediction, Tips & Odds
Skanste vs Mārupe


Match Preview
The model favours Mārupe to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in 6th place, Mārupe has had a reasonably strong season with six wins from their 13 matches, accumulating 19 points. Their goal difference of +3 indicates a more balanced performance, having scored 22 goals while conceding 19. Despite a recent dip in form, with two wins and three losses in their last five matches, they remain a competitive side. On the other hand, Skanste finds themselves in 9th position, struggling with just four wins and a total of 13 points. Their goal difference of -7 reflects their defensive vulnerabilities, as they have conceded 27 goals while scoring only 20. Skanste has shown some resilience by winning one of their last five matches, but their overall form suggests they may struggle against a stronger opponent like Mārupe. The model gives Mārupe a win probability of approximately 55% in this matchup. However, Skanste's potential to pull off an upset should not be underestimated, especially if they can tighten their defence. For more details on how we reached this prediction, refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team utilizes an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Head to Head
Last 6 Meetings (evenly matched 2-2)











Skanste and Mārupe have been evenly matched in this fixture, with 2 wins each and 2 draws across the last 6 meetings. The record offers no clear edge to either side, and the scorelines have stayed mostly tight rather than one-sided.
1. Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 46 | 11 | 35 | 34 | WWWWD | |
| 2 | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 35 | 12 | 23 | 32 | WWWWD | |
| 3 | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 24 | 17 | 7 | 30 | WWLLD | |
| 4 | 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 27 | 13 | 14 | 29 | DLWWW | |
| 5 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 29 | 22 | 7 | 24 | DWLWD | |
| 6 | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 24 | 20 | 4 | 22 | WLWLL | |
| 9 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 21 | 29 | -8 | 13 | LLLLW | |
| 12 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 18 | 31 | -13 | 11 | WLLLL | |
| 13 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 38 | -22 | 7 | LWLLL | |
| 14 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 11 | 39 | -28 | 5 | LLDLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 Season
Skanste have won 4 of their last 11 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Skanste 0-3 and lost to Skanste 0-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 4D 12L from the last 25 games (36% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.













Mārupe have won 5 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include beat Mārupe 1-2 and lost to Riga Mariners 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 2D 14L from the last 27 games (41% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.












Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 players
Skanste
No reported absences
Mārupe
No reported absences
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.



