SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Prediction, Tips & Odds
SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach
Match Preview
The model favours SC Freiburg to win against Borussia Mönchengladbach, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Freiburg enters the match in a strong position, having achieved five consecutive victories in their last five matches. Although they have not yet played this season, their excellent form from the previous season suggests a solid foundation as they look to start the new campaign positively. On the other hand, Borussia Mönchengladbach is struggling early in the season. They have played one match, which resulted in a loss, conceding three goals without scoring. Their recent form, including four wins but one loss in their last five matches, indicates they have potential but need to translate that into better performances in the current season. The model output suggests a win probability of around 65% for Freiburg, with a projected score of 2-0. However, a key caveat is that early-season dynamics can be unpredictable, and Mönchengladbach may surprise with a turnaround in form. For a detailed understanding of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team utilizes an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.1% probability.
SC Freiburg have been the stronger side, winning 57% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.1% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. SC Freiburg are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.71 | 4.30 | 4.65 | 1.51 | 2.35 | 1.55 | 2.29 | |
| 1.67 | 4.20 | 4.60 | 1.50 | 2.55 | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| 1.71 | 4.22 | 4.66 | 1.56 | 2.54 | — | — | |
| 1.67 | 3.76 | 4.13 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.67 | 3.90 | 4.33 | — | — | 1.57 | 2.38 | |
| 1.70 | 4.00 | 4.75 | 1.53 | 2.50 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 1.74 | 4.37 | 4.72 | 1.51 | 2.35 | 1.55 | 2.32 | |
Betano | 1.72 | 4.25 | 4.85 | 1.60 | 2.42 | 1.57 | 2.30 |
BetVictor | 1.67 | 4.10 | 4.50 | 1.51 | 2.34 | 1.50 | 2.40 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (SC Freiburg leads 5-0)In the last 10 matches between SC Freiburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach, SC Freiburg has won 5 times, with 5 matches ending in draws, while Borussia Mönchengladbach has not secured a win. The scorelines indicate a mix of tight contests and more decisive victories, with Freiburg achieving a notable 6-0 win in December 2021. Additionally, the presence of three draws suggests some close encounters, but Mönchengladbach's inability to win in this sample highlights a significant challenge for them. Their last victory against Freiburg occurred prior to this sample, indicating a prolonged struggle in recent matchups.
Bundesliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 12 | WWWW |
| 2 |  Bayern München | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 12 | 10 | WWDW |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 10 | DWWW |
| 4 |  FC Augsburg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 7 | LDWW |
| 5 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 7 | WDWL |
| 6 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 7 | WLWD |
| 16 |  Hamburger SV | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 3 | WLLL |
| 17 |  Union Berlin | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 17 | -13 | 1 | LLLD |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 0 | LLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSC Freiburg have won 16 of their last 21 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat FC Luzern 4-2 and beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 5-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 21W 4D 12L from the last 37 games (57% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 7 of their last 21 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-1 and beat Sportfreunde Siegen 0-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 9D 10L from the last 32 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedSC Freiburg4-2-3-1Confirmed
Borussia Mönchengladbach4-4-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
6 playersSC Freiburg
No reported absences
Borussia Mönchengladbach6
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
SC Freiburg have averaged 4.0 corners per match at home; Borussia Mönchengladbach 6.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
SC Freiburg have generated 1.83 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 57% of them. They put 8.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. SC Freiburg player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
