SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen Prediction, Tips & Odds
SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen
Match Preview
The model favours SC Freiburg to win against Werder Bremen, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Freiburg enters the new season with a solid foundation, having finished 7th in the previous campaign. Their last five matches show strong form, with four wins and just one loss, indicating they have momentum heading into this matchup. Although the season has just begun, Freiburg's recent performance suggests they can carry this form into their opening fixture. On the other hand, Werder Bremen finished lower in the standings last season, placing 15th. Their recent form, with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches, hints at some potential improvement but lacks the consistency shown by Freiburg. This inconsistency may prove detrimental as they start the season against a more confident opponent. The model indicates a win probability of 60% for SC Freiburg, with the projected score remaining at 2-1. One caveat to consider is that both teams are starting fresh, and unexpected performances can arise in opening matches. For a detailed explanation of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis comes from The Daily Punt Analysis Team, using an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.4% probability.
SC Freiburg have been the stronger side, winning 56% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.4% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature SC Freiburg clean sheets, in line with their 24% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. SC Freiburg are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.85 | 3.55 | 4.10 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 1.85 | 3.78 | 4.40 | 1.74 | 2.12 | 1.65 | 2.11 | |
| 1.85 | 3.70 | 4.33 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.60 | 2.25 | |
| 1.84 | 3.76 | 4.55 | 1.76 | 2.16 | — | — | |
| 1.82 | 3.50 | 3.78 | 1.77 | 2.12 | — | — | |
| 1.83 | 3.50 | 4.00 | — | — | 1.65 | 2.20 | |
| 1.80 | 3.70 | 4.33 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 1.89 | 3.81 | 4.47 | 1.81 | 2.17 | 1.65 | 2.13 | |
| 1.85 | 3.60 | 3.90 | 1.75 | 2.07 | 1.63 | 2.16 | |
| 1.83 | 3.50 | 4.00 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.65 | 2.20 | |
Betano | 1.87 | 3.55 | 4.25 | 1.78 | 2.10 | 1.62 | 2.20 |
Superbet | 1.88 | 3.75 | 4.10 | 1.75 | 2.10 | 1.67 | 2.17 |
BetVictor | 1.80 | 3.75 | 4.10 | 1.67 | 2.03 | 1.62 | 2.15 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (SC Freiburg leads 7-1)In the last 10 matches between SC Freiburg and Werder Bremen, SC Freiburg has won 7 times, with 2 draws and Werder Bremen winning once. The scorelines indicate a dominant performance by Freiburg, highlighted by three heavy victories, including a 5-0 win. The matches have often been low-scoring, with several encounters finishing 1-0 or 2-0. Werder Bremen's only win in this stretch came back in January 2024, and they have struggled to secure points, with only two draws in the last 10 encounters. Overall, Freiburg's record reflects a significant advantage in this rivalry.
Bundesliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Augsburg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 6 | WW |
| 2 | SC Freiburg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 6 | WW |
| 3 |  Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 6 | WW |
| 4 |  SV Elversberg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 6 | WW |
| 5 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 4 | WD |
| 6 |  Bayern München | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | DW |
| 10 | Werder Bremen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3 | WL |
| 16 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 0 | LL |
| 17 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 0 | LL |
| 18 |  Hamburger SV | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | -7 | 0 | LL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSC Freiburg have won 14 of their last 19 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat SC Freiburg 4-1 and beat SC Freiburg 4-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 3D 12L from the last 34 games (56% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Werder Bremen have won 5 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to SC Freiburg 4-1 and beat Lüneburger SK Hansa 0-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 4D 14L from the last 28 games (36% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedSC Freiburg4-2-3-1Confirmed
Werder Bremen4-3-3Confirmed
Unavailable Players
7 playersSC Freiburg3
Werder Bremen4
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
D. Siebert has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by D. Siebert to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
SC Freiburg have averaged 4.0 corners per match at home; Werder Bremen 2.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
SC Freiburg have generated 1.83 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 56% of them. They put 8.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. SC Freiburg player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
