Serbia vs Greece Prediction, Tips & Odds
Serbia vs Greece
Match Preview
Serbia and Greece face off in a crucial knockout match in the UEFA Nations League, with both teams eager to secure a place in the next round. As the group stage has yet to begin, this match is an opportunity for both sides to establish their credentials early in the tournament. Recent competitive form suggests that Serbia has struggled, losing five of their last eight matches, including heavy defeats to Mexico and Spain in friendlies. They did manage a couple of wins against Latvia and Andorra, but their overall performance raises questions about their ability to compete at a high level in this knockout format. On the other hand, Greece has also experienced difficulties, with only one win in their last eight competitive matches, although they did show resilience with several draws against Sweden and Belarus. The stakes are high for both teams, as a win is essential to advance in this knockout scenario. With no reported absentees for either side, both teams will field their full squads, which could lead to a closely contested match. However, the recent form of both teams may impact their confidence and overall performance. One caveat to consider is the lack of recent competitive matches, as both teams have primarily played friendlies. This could affect their match fitness and cohesion on the pitch. The Daily Punt Analysis Team has evaluated the fixture using an in-house model that incorporates aggregated bookmaker probabilities and the tournament context, though no specific probabilities are available for this encounter.
About the Teams
Serbia
Profile data not available yet.
Greece
Profile data not available yet.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.7% probability.
Serbia have been the stronger side, winning 33% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.7% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Serbia are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Serbia vs Greece| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.65 | 3.35 | 2.72 | 2.13 | 1.73 | 1.82 | 1.88 | |
| 2.40 | 3.30 | 2.88 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.60 | 3.39 | 2.70 | 2.13 | 1.72 | — | — | |
| 2.49 | 2.94 | 2.45 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.50 | 3.10 | 2.62 | — | — | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 2.55 | 3.30 | 2.62 | 2.10 | 1.70 | 1.83 | 1.83 | |
| 2.65 | 3.35 | 2.72 | 2.13 | 1.73 | 1.82 | 1.90 | |
Betano | 2.67 | 3.25 | 2.70 | 2.15 | 1.75 | 1.82 | 1.93 |
BetVictor | 2.55 | 3.13 | 2.60 | 2.02 | 1.68 | 1.80 | 1.90 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonSerbia have won 2 of their last 4 matches at home, drawing 0 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat Serbia 2-1 and beat Serbia 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 3W 0D 6L from the last 9 games (33% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Greece have won 0 of their last 5 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 2. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Sweden 2-2 and drew with Hungary 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 2W 3D 5L from the last 10 games (20% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
National-team lineups are genuinely unknown until 1 to 2 hours before kick-off, when the starting XI is confirmed. Until then, only predicted lineups are possible.
Unavailable Players
0 playersSerbia
No reported absences
Greece
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Serbia have averaged 5.8 corners per match at home; Greece 5.6 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.7 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Serbia have generated 1.32 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 33% of them. They put 3.9 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Serbia player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
