Austria vs Israel Prediction, Tips & Odds
Austria vs Israel
Match Preview
Austria and Israel face off in a crucial knockout match in the UEFA Nations League, where the stakes are high and only a win will secure progression. Both teams enter this encounter with their group stage yet to commence, meaning every point will be vital in their quest for success in League B, Group 3. In terms of recent competitive form, Austria has had a mixed bag, with three losses in their last four matches against strong opposition, including a 3-0 defeat to Spain and a 2-0 loss to Argentina. However, they also showcased resilience with victories against Jordan and Tunisia in friendlies. Conversely, Israel appears to have a more promising trajectory, having secured a 4-1 win against Moldova and drawing with Georgia, despite suffering defeats to Italy and Norway. This suggests Israel may have a slight edge in confidence going into the match. Both teams come into this fixture without reported absentees, which could provide them with the best chance to field their strongest lineups. The neutral venue means neither side will have a home advantage, further adding to the unpredictability of the outcome. One caveat to consider is the limited recent competitive data, as both teams have faced varied opponents and conditions. The Daily Punt Analysis Team has evaluated this fixture using an in-house model that incorporates aggregated bookmaker probabilities and the broader tournament context, but no specific model output is available for this match.
About the Teams
Austria
Profile data not available yet.
Israel
Profile data not available yet.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.5% probability.
Austria have been the stronger side, winning 64% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-0 Austria win as the most likely scoreline at 14.5% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Austria clean sheets, in line with their 43% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Austria are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Austria vs Israel| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.39 | 5.00 | 8.10 | 1.53 | 2.30 | 1.79 | 1.92 | |
| 1.30 | 4.75 | 7.50 | 1.57 | 2.25 | — | — | |
| 1.38 | 5.09 | 7.35 | 1.58 | 2.38 | — | — | |
| 1.34 | 4.26 | 5.99 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.36 | 4.60 | 7.50 | — | — | 1.75 | 1.95 | |
| 1.38 | 4.50 | 7.00 | 1.57 | 2.35 | 1.80 | 1.91 | |
| 1.40 | 5.00 | 8.00 | 1.53 | 2.30 | 1.79 | 1.94 | |
Betano | 1.42 | 4.90 | 7.00 | 1.60 | 2.42 | 1.78 | 1.98 |
BetVictor | 1.36 | 4.60 | 7.00 | 1.55 | 2.25 | 1.75 | 1.95 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 4 Meetings (evenly matched 2-2)In their last four competitive meetings, Austria and Israel have each won two matches, with no draws recorded. These encounters took place between 2019 and 2021, with the most recent match occurring in November 2021. The results show a balanced record, with Austria winning 4-2 in their last meeting, while Israel previously won 5-2 in September 2021. The earlier matches in 2019 also featured similar high-scoring outcomes, with Israel winning 4-2 and Austria securing a 3-1 victory. Given the even split in wins and the relatively recent meetings, no clear pattern emerges from these fixtures.
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonAustria have won 6 of their last 7 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 0. Their recent home fixtures include beat Austria 3-1 and beat Austria 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 2D 3L from the last 14 games (64% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Israel have won 3 of their last 7 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 2. Their recent away fixtures include beat Israel 0-1 and drew with Georgia 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 5W 2D 3L from the last 10 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
National-team lineups are genuinely unknown until 1 to 2 hours before kick-off, when the starting XI is confirmed. Until then, only predicted lineups are possible.
Unavailable Players
0 playersAustria
No reported absences
Israel
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Austria have averaged 3.2 corners per match at home; Israel 4.4 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Austria have generated 1.04 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 64% of them. They put 3.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Austria player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
