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Netherlands vs Germany Prediction, Tips & Odds

Netherlands vs Germany

UEFA Nations League1
Netherlands
#2 · UEFA Nations League
DWWDW
VS
Germany
#1 · UEFA Nations League
DLWWW
★ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Both attacks have been productive and both defences leaky — both teams to score carries the edge.
BTTS
1.50
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.47 (implied 68.2%) for Both Teams to Score. Our experts calculate a 70.7% probability (an expert ratio of 1.41). We chose this bet because our experts rate it more likely than the bookmaker price implies (70.7% vs 68.2%), driven by both attacks scoring freely while both defences look leaky. That edge makes it our most confident selection for this match.

Match Preview

The Netherlands and Germany will face off in a knockout match of the UEFA Nations League, where the stakes are high—win or be eliminated from the tournament. Both teams enter this fixture with an opportunity to assert themselves early in the group stage, as they look to build momentum for the remaining matches. Recent competitive form indicates that the Netherlands have shown resilience, with a mixed bag of results that includes notable victories against Sweden and Tunisia. Their ability to score frequently, as seen in their matches, suggests they have the attacking prowess to challenge Germany. In contrast, Germany's recent form has been more varied, with a significant win against Curaçao, but also a loss to Ecuador that raises questions about their consistency. The contrasting trajectories of these two teams could play a crucial role in the match. While both squads appear to be fully available with no reported absentees, the neutral venue could also level the playing field, stripping away any potential home advantage. This adds an element of unpredictability to the encounter. Given the lack of specific FIFA rankings and tournament history, it is important to approach this match with caution. The Daily Punt Analysis Team has assessed this fixture using an in-house model that considers aggregated bookmaker probabilities alongside the tournament context. However, as bookmakers have not yet priced this fixture, no model probability is available to guide expectations.

About the Teams

Netherlands

Profile data not available yet.

Recent matches
Dvs Morocco 1-1World Cup
Wat Tunisia 3-1World Cup
Wvs Sweden 5-1World Cup
Dvs Japan 2-2World Cup
Wvs Uzbekistan 2-1Friendly
Lvs Algeria 0-1Friendly

Germany

Profile data not available yet.

Recent matches
Dvs Paraguay 1-1World Cup
Lat Ecuador 1-2World Cup
Wvs Ivory Coast 2-1World Cup
Wvs Curaçao 7-1World Cup
Wat USA 2-1Friendly
Wvs Finland 4-0Friendly

Betting Predictions

How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.

Match Result
Netherlands Win46%2.26
Draw22%3.65
Germany Win33%2.80
BTTS
Both Teams to Score: Yes
1.4765.8%

Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.

Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5 Goals
1.5564.1%

Combined goal output is high (5.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.

Correct Score
Netherlands 1-1 Germany
7.1514.0%

The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.0% probability.

Asian Handicap
Netherlands -0.3
2.0240%

Netherlands have been the stronger side, winning 60% of their matches.

CORRECT SCOREMost likely outcomes
1-1
7.15
14.0%
2-1
8.97
11.2%
1-2
10.02
10.0%
2-2
10.73
9.4%
1-0
10.98
9.1%
0-1
12.07
8.3%

Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.0% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.

ASIAN HANDICAPLines & prices
Netherlands
-0.0
1.70
Germany
+0.0
2.13
Netherlands
-0.3
2.02
Germany
+0.3
2.47
Netherlands
-1.5
4.00
Germany
+1.5
5.00

Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Netherlands are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.

Best Betting Odds

Netherlands vs Germany
Bookmaker1X2O/U 2.5BTTS
1X2OverUnderYesNo
Marathonbet
2.313.752.911.512.351.462.52
Betfair
2.253.802.75
Pinnacle
2.263.842.881.572.41
SBO
2.193.292.56
William Hill
2.253.502.801.442.50
Bet365
2.253.602.801.572.351.502.50
1xBet
2.333.752.901.512.351.462.56
Betano
2.323.702.851.602.401.502.50
BetVictor
2.203.602.751.542.271.442.55

Goals Probability

Avg. bookmaker odds
Over 0.5 Goals
93.5%
Over 1.5 Goals
81%
Over 2.5 Goals
64.1%
Over 3.5 Goals
39.6%

Double Chance

Bet covers two outcomes
1XNetherlands or Draw
67%1.40
12Netherlands or Germany
78%1.26
X2Draw or Germany
54%1.60

Head to Head

Last 9 Meetings (Germany leads 4-2)
2 Netherlands3 Draw4 Germany
Oct 24
Germany
1-0
Netherlands
UEFA Nations League
Sept 24
Netherlands
2-2
Germany
UEFA Nations League
Mar 24
Germany
2-1
Netherlands
Friendlies
Mar 22
Netherlands
1-1
Germany
Friendlies
Sept 19
Germany
2-4
Netherlands
Euro Championship
Mar 19
Netherlands
2-3
Germany
Euro Championship
Nov 18
Germany
2-2
Netherlands
UEFA Nations League
Oct 18
Netherlands
3-0
Germany
UEFA Nations League
Jun 12
Netherlands
1-2
Germany
Euro Championship

In the last nine meetings between the Netherlands and Germany, Germany leads with four wins, while the Netherlands has two victories and there have been three draws. Of these encounters, seven were competitive matches, and two were friendlies. The most recent matches have taken place in 2024, indicating that the teams have faced each other relatively recently. However, the friendlies may dilute the signal, as they often feature rotated squads and lower intensity. The competitive meetings show a closely contested rivalry, but the overall record suggests Germany has had the upper hand historically.

Key Statistics

2026 Season
NetherlandsGermany
2.73Goals p.g.2.6
0.87Goals conceded p.g.1
27%Clean sheets33%
60%Win rate73%
3.6Avg goals in match3.6
1.66xG per game2.16
-0.38xGA per game-0.30
53%Possession %63%
4.9Shots on target / game7.6
4.5Corners per game7.7
Netherlands
Recent Form

Netherlands have won 6 of their last 11 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Morocco 1-1 and beat Sweden 5-1.

Overall, the wider run reads 9W 5D 1L from the last 15 games (60% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.

Match Results: NetherlandsAll competitions
30 Jun
Netherlands
1-1
Morocco
World Cup
25 Jun
Tunisia
1-3
Netherlands
World Cup
20 Jun
Netherlands
5-1
Sweden
World Cup
14 Jun
Netherlands
2-2
Japan
World Cup
08 Jun
Netherlands
2-1
Uzbekistan
Friendlies
03 Jun
Netherlands
0-1
Algeria
Friendlies
9
Win
60%
5
Draw
33%
1
Lost
7%
Germany
Recent Form

Germany have won 4 of their last 6 matches on the road, drawing 0 and losing 2. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Ecuador 2-1 and beat USA 1-2.

Overall, the wider run reads 11W 1D 3L from the last 15 games (73% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.

Match Results: GermanyAll competitions
29 Jun
Germany
1-1
Paraguay
World Cup
25 Jun
Ecuador
2-1
Germany
World Cup
20 Jun
Germany
2-1
Ivory Coast
World Cup
14 Jun
Germany
7-1
Curaçao
World Cup
06 Jun
USA
1-2
Germany
Friendlies
31 May
Germany
4-0
Finland
Friendlies
11
Win
73%
1
Draw
7%
3
Lost
20%

Lineups

📋

Lineups not yet announced

National-team lineups are genuinely unknown until 1 to 2 hours before kick-off, when the starting XI is confirmed. Until then, only predicted lineups are possible.

Unavailable Players

0 players

Netherlands

No reported absences

Germany

No reported absences

Betting Strategy

High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.

High Probability
Over 2.5 Goals1.55 (64.1%)
Both Teams Score1.47 (65.8%)
Value Bets
Netherlands Win2.26 (45.7%)
Germany Win2.80 (32.6%)
Under 2.5 Goals2.35 (35.9%)
BTTS No2.52 (34.2%)
Speculative
Draw3.65 (21.7%)

Yellow Card Prediction

The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.

Corner Prediction

Netherlands have averaged 4.5 corners per match at home; Germany 7.7 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.1 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.

Player Stats Bet

Netherlands have generated 1.66 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 60% of them. They put 4.9 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Netherlands player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.

What's Your Prediction?

Pick the result you expect

OUR PREDICTION
Both Teams to Score Yes

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The Daily Punt Analysis Team

Data-driven football predictions and betting tips

This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.

Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.