Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid Prediction, Tips & Odds
Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid
Match Preview
The model favours Sevilla to win against Atletico Madrid, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Sevilla currently sits in second place in the league after one match, having secured a victory with a goal difference of one. Their recent form has been strong, with four wins in their last five matches, indicating a solid start to the season. Atletico Madrid, on the other hand, has yet to play a match this season, starting from a lower position in sixth place. Their recent form is concerning, with only two wins in their last five matches, including three losses. This lack of competitive match play could hinder their readiness to perform against a team like Sevilla. The model assigns a win probability of 65% to Sevilla, with a projected score of 2-1. A key market percentage to note is that Sevilla is favoured by the betting markets at approximately 55%. However, one caveat is that Atletico Madrid could surprise if they manage to find their rhythm quickly, despite their recent struggles. The full method used for this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, relying on expected goals and actual results across the season, as analyzed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.3% probability.
Atletico Madrid have been the stronger side, winning 47% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.3% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 1 bookmaker. Atletico Madrid are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.30 | 3.50 | 2.05 | 1.91 | 1.80 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 2.99 | 3.50 | 2.53 | 2.09 | 1.86 | 1.73 | 2.05 | |
Betano | 3.55 | 3.35 | 2.12 | 2.02 | 1.83 | 1.78 | 1.98 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Atletico Madrid leads 7-2)Atletico Madrid hold the edge in this fixture, winning 7 of the last 10 meetings with 1 draws and 2 Sevilla wins. The record points to a tie Atletico Madrid have controlled for years, though the draws show Sevilla have at times kept it tight.
La Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sevilla | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 6 | WW |
| 2 |  Alaves | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | DW |
| 3 |  Espanyol | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | LW |
| 4 | Atletico Madrid | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 5 |  Real Madrid | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 6 |  Real Betis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 18 |  Malaga | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | L |
| 19 |  Levante | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | L |
| 20 |  Getafe | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | L |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSevilla have won 7 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include beat Rayo Vallecano 2-1 and beat AD Ceuta FC 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 6D 12L from the last 29 games (38% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Atletico Madrid have won 5 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 10. Their recent away fixtures include beat Marseille 1-2 and lost to Manchester City 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 3D 14L from the last 32 games (47% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersSevilla
No reported absences
Atletico Madrid
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Sevilla have averaged 4.3 corners per match at home; Atletico Madrid 5.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Atletico Madrid have generated 1.69 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 47% of them. They put 3.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Atletico Madrid player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
