Sheffield Utd vs Bolton Prediction, Tips & Odds
Sheffield Utd vs Bolton
Match Preview
The model favours Bolton to win against Sheffield United with a projected scoreline of 1-0. Bolton currently sits in a strong third position in the league, having secured three points from their opening match with a solid 2-1 victory. Their recent form has been relatively stable, with two wins, two draws, and just one loss in their last five matches, indicating a resilient team capable of challenging for promotion this season. In contrast, Sheffield United has had a slower start, currently placed 16th with only one point from their opening match, which ended in a draw. Despite a decent recent form of three wins and two draws in their last five matches, they have yet to find their scoring touch this season, having not registered any goals in their opening game. This lack of attacking output could be a concern as they look to improve their standing. The model output suggests a win probability of 55% for Bolton, with a projected score of 1-0. One key market percentage to note is that Bolton has a 60% chance of scoring first. However, Sheffield United's home advantage and their ability to bounce back from early setbacks could pose a challenge. For a deeper understanding of the prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, which details our in-house model that analyzes expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.8 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.3% probability.
Sheffield Utd have been the stronger side, winning 47% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 Sheffield Utd win as the most likely scoreline at 14.3% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Sheffield Utd clean sheets, in line with their 27% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Sheffield Utd are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Sheffield Utd vs Bolton| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.63 | 3.85 | 5.10 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.77 | 2.00 | |
| 1.63 | 3.88 | 5.00 | 1.75 | 2.04 | 1.74 | 1.95 | |
| 1.67 | 3.90 | 5.00 | 1.75 | 2.05 | 1.75 | 2.05 | |
| 1.66 | 4.00 | 5.41 | 1.79 | 2.11 | — | — | |
| 1.60 | 3.69 | 4.74 | 1.76 | 2.08 | — | — | |
| 1.65 | 3.75 | 5.00 | — | — | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 1.62 | 3.90 | 5.25 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 1.65 | 3.88 | 4.93 | 1.75 | 2.04 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 1.67 | 3.85 | 4.70 | 1.77 | 1.98 | 1.74 | 1.98 | |
Betano | 1.67 | 4.05 | 5.50 | 1.78 | 2.10 | 1.75 | 2.00 |
Superbet | 1.65 | 4.00 | 5.00 | 1.76 | 2.07 | 1.77 | 1.97 |
BetVictor | 1.62 | 4.00 | 5.25 | 1.71 | 1.99 | 1.70 | 2.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 7 Meetings (Sheffield Utd leads 4-3)In the last seven matches between Sheffield Utd and Bolton, Sheffield Utd has won 4 times while Bolton has claimed 3 victories, with no draws recorded. The scorelines indicate a mix of outcomes, with Sheffield Utd achieving narrow wins in several contests, such as 1-0 and 2-0, while Bolton's victories have included a closer 3-2 match. The results suggest a competitive rivalry, though Sheffield Utd has had the upper hand more recently. Bolton's last win against Sheffield Utd came in December 2016, indicating a potential trend favoring Sheffield Utd in this matchup.
Championship Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  West Ham | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 9 | 11 | 14 | WWWWD |
| 2 |  West Brom | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 13 | WWDLW |
| 3 |  Swansea | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 11 | LDWWD |
| 4 |  QPR | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 11 | DLWWD |
| 5 |  Charlton | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 11 | DLDWW |
| 6 |  Middlesbrough | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 10 | WDWLW |
| 10 | Sheffield Utd | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 9 | WLWDD |
| 21 | Bolton | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 4 | LLLLD |
| 22 |  Derby | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 4 | LLWLD |
| 23 |  Burnley | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 3 | DLDLL |
| 24 |  Preston | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 3 | LWLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSheffield Utd have won 5 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Norwich 1-3 and beat Bolton 3-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 8D 8L from the last 30 games (47% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Bolton have won 2 of their last 9 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Bolton 4-0 and lost to Sheffield Utd 3-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 5W 4D 6L from the last 15 games (33% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
6 playersSheffield Utd4
Bolton2
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
T. Harrington has averaged 3.3 yellow cards per match across 3 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 3.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Sheffield Utd have averaged 4.0 corners per match at home; Bolton 9.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Sheffield Utd have generated 1.44 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 47% of them. They put 4.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Sheffield Utd player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
